FB, FEYE, FIT, RACE, TSLA, TWTR updates 11/2

FB: despite the strong earnings as usual a not so strong reaction to it this time. The advance off the late-September low of $161.56 is not a typical impulse pattern and if we assume (grey) minute-ii was an irregular flat then yesterday could have been minute-iii, minute-iv now underway and minute-v soon to follow. Overlap with the minute-i high at $171.87 will take this count off the table and start to suggest major-3 has topped. Break below the late October low of 168.89 will be 2nd warning for the bulls and a break below that late-September low will all but confirm that a much larger correction is underway.

If price breaks higher above yesterday’s high than it should ideally be on it’s way to the 176.4% extension at around $189.

FB daily


FEYE: My recent assessment of FEYE was wrong. I expected price to move higher (on earnings) but it clearly didn’t. The only way to reconcile the price action is to move the waves one degree and that would mean wave-5 topped at $18. Support is now at $13.75. If this count is correct than price should likely try to fill the gap at $12.90 and then reverse. There’s even a gap at $10.75, but that would be almost too deep a retrace for a 2nd wave, and make me wonder about where FEYE is in the big picture. Hence, for now it’s a stock I’d not touch until the smoke clears up.

feye daily


FIT: In my recent update (see here) I was a bit hesitant to count the recent late-September high as a first wave up, and here we are after earnings. Down ~5%. However, price hit the 61.8% retrace ($5.62; lower edge of the red target zone) so far to the T today, and bounced. Now price needs to start staging a strong rally and  break over that September high to suggest a 3rd wave is underway with the target in the red box with “iii” shown. If not, then the FIT bulls are in trouble because the decline off that high to today’s low can be counted as 5 waves down, meaning the price trend is now down.

fit daily


RACE: As it made a new ATH I had to adjust my count (anticipate, monitor, adjust if necessary) and have it now most likely completing (black) major-3 of (blue) primary I, with (red) intermediate-v as and ending diagonal triangle. This elliot wave count is supported by the weekly MACD, as it didn’t give a buy signal since the (red) intermediate-iii high. Typical for a 5th wave.

Ideally the major-4 correction should drop to the 23.6-38.2% retrace, black box, but there’s strong support now in the 105-110 region (see blue box) and given how strong this stock has been it’s a level to watch. Since the weekly RSI5 hasn’t been oversold since the February 2016 low, an oversold reading (<20) will most likely be an excellent buying opportunity IMHO. We’ll keep monitoring it. For now, the risk/reward is getting imho too high up here.

race weekly


TSLA: My ideal target for the c-wave down was $305, see here, but price has already exceeded this level. There’s an open chart gap at $279, which shows even more clearly on the weekly chart (see 2nd chart below) and price may try to fill this. We then have an expanded flat major-4 correction, where wave a=b and wave c>a. Cont’d below.

TSLA daily

BUT, price cannot overlap with the (black) major-1 high made mid-2016. Why? Because 1st and 4th waves can’t overlap according to EWT. There’s strong support in the 300-280 region (see green bar) and that coincides with the gap fill. Assuming we’ll get that, then price has also done an almost 50% retrace, which is rather deep for a 4th wave (38.2% is more common), but it is what it is. If we then can get a major-5=1 final wave for (blue) Primary III then we should see TSLA reached low $400s before it embarks down to the $300 region once again for Primary IV… But for now, lets watch the $280 level.


TSLA weekly.png


TWTR: Needs to stop the bleeding pretty much right here and now. It topped right at longer term resistance and declined over the past 4 days right back to support. Overlap with the mid-October (grey) minute-i high would provide me with a serious head-ache on how to count this, as then the price action is starting to become increasingly overlapping. For now, we’ll give the benefits of the doubt to the TWTR bulls, but they better start stepping it up.

TWTR daily