FB, AMZN, AAPL, NFLX, GOOGL, (FAANG) updates 11/29

When stocks all of a sudden drop much further than prior I would have liked to see based on the wave counts (see prior update here), it is -besides the fact that it really sucks to see my analyses being tossed out the window by the market (but as you know we are wrong till proven right and nobody can get it right all the time- my job to re-analyse the charts. This is also one of the draw back of EWT: sometimes the market can snug in very small 4th waves that don’t show up on the daily charts, or we have failed 5th waves: the market fails to make a higher high. However, with today’s heavy selling in the big tech names it’s time to really get cautious in many names. some may have put in very long term tops (AAPL, AMZN, NFLX). Others (FB, GOOGL, TWTR) have some more upside left.

FB: Lets start with the daily chart. I can count 5 waves up that have completed off the late-September low. A drop below that low ($160) will confirm (black) major-3 has topped and that $145-$125 is next. There’s negative divergence galore on all Technical Indicators and price is very close to dropping out of the green up trend channel.  There’s an ideal A.I. sell signal now as well.

FB daily

Similarly the weekly chart also shows a completed 5 waves up all the way back from the late-2016 (intermediate-iv low). If correct than (black) major-4 will target the 23.6-38.2% retrace at $146-$123. Both are now strong support and it’s for now impossible to say which level it will be for major-4. However, the risk is thus now at a minimum 22% and at the most 33%… Please consider that when long FB, and also please remember that all major-5 needs to do (if it doesn’t fail) is to trader above major-3. Thus it can simple reach $190 and that’s it… Thus is the possible $6 reward worth the possible $60 risk is something those who are long from much lower levels need to ask them selves. That said, also here we have sell signals across the board, and negative divergence on the MACD. Not a very healthy looking chart anymore.

fb weekly

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AAPL: Lets start with the daily chart. It has still a change for an irregular intermediate-iv wave flat, as long as price remains above red intermediate-i @ $160. Below that and (red) intermediate-iv of (black) major-5 of (blue) Primary-III of (pink) Cycle-1 has peaked (see weekly chart below) as a failed 5th wave. These are rare (see also NFLX) but that doesn’t mean they can’t happen. They are very tricky to anticipate and work with.

aapl-daily 1

Below is the weekly chart for AAPL and it shows the possible 5 completed waves up off the (black) major-4 low made mid-2016. Again, as long as price remains above $160 it can still go higher. But, please make sure to weigh the risks vs the rewards. If AAPL has put in a Cycle-1 high than this will be the longest bear market AAPL has ever experienced… It will likely reduce its share price by 50-76%… I personally got stopped out yesterday and will not re-enter.

aapl weekly

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AMZN: The micro-count I presented in the previous update was wrong 🙁 Sorry, but I can’t get it always right. Now AMZN has one last chance for a (green) minor-4 being underway targeting low $1100s. The alternate is that all of (BLUE) Primary III (see weekly chart below) topped 2 days ago… Hence, also here the risk vs the reward of being long and trying to squeeze out one more rally should be weighted carefully. Thus it is possible AMZN continues to extend, but I for one am not betting on it from here.

amzn-daily1

Assuming AMZN has topped for Primary III than Primary IV is now underway to $927-750 (23.6-38.2% retrace). This will be the biggest bear market AMZN has ever experienced and many, many will lose a lot of money… Thus betting on the extension vs the downside is becoming increasingly risky IMHO…

amzn monthly

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NFLX: Same drill as all the prior stocks. Yep, the picture I am painting for the FAANG stocks ain’t pretty but it is what it is. Also NFLX fell out of bed today and is trading well-below its 50d SMA and today’s candle ain’t pretty. That’s a bear candle. The daily chart now looks weak and bleak , with sell signals galore and the (green) Bollinger Bands expanding while price is at the lower band: weakness. NFLX likely experienced a failed 5th wave early-November. These are rare and impossible to anticipate or even recognize uyntil much after the fact.

NFLX daily

The weekly chart of NFLX looks weak and bleak as well, with negative divergences galore and abundant sell signals. A drop below $164 will mean Cycle-1 is in and NFLX will experience, like the other stocks it’s largest bear market to come and shave off at least 50% of it’s current price… Are you willing to sit through that?

nflx weekly

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GOOGL: Today’s drop was much more than I had anticipated in yesterday’s update and this begs the question if (grey) minute-iv is forming an irregular flat -like AAPL- or if (red) intermediate-iii of (black) major-3 topped with (orange) micro-2 being much larger than micro-4. For now all TIs are on a sell, and want to see lower prices…

GOOGL daily

If intermediate-iii is in, than intermediate-iv should bring price back to the $930 level. Then intermediate-v to $1200s to complete major-3. Note that the weekly chart has a slightly different EWT count than the daily, but both come to the same conclusion… Also here, upside reward is small vs downside risk.

googl weekly