FB, AMD, BABA, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, GOOGL, EA, TSLA, PCLN updates 02/21

FB: Still counts best as having completed intermediate-a of major-4 and intermediate-b is now underway.

FB daily

The weekly Technical Indicators don’t look healthy as all are pointing down and on a sell. Support is at the upper black trend line, where price bottomed last week (how coincidental 😉 ). I can’t recommend a long until these are all pointing back up.

fb weekly

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AMD: It has been a while since I update on this micro-chip producer, mainly because price hasn’t really gone anywhere over the last 12 months and this has thus become a traders stocks, not a buy and hold stock. But, there are now two options: either primary II is still underway with red intermediate-c of major-b underway or it already bottomed and Primary III has started. Price is still below its 200d SMA and does need to move above it to make some progress. A break over $14 will be a first good sign of more good things to happen. Until then things are up in the air, and a break below $10 targets $7

AMD

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BABA: Either minor-a of intermediate-iv or all of intermediate-iv bottomed last week (just like all other major tech stocks as highlighted here) did. The low was well inside the ideal target zone (red box) and also right at the prior green minor-4 low. Thus all requirements have been met. One could long BABA if not already done so, with a stop at say $175, or own comfort level. The TIs are starting to turn back up, and there’s some good underlying call buying in this stock, so for now it looks good IMHO.

baba weekly

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AAPL: Since AAPL is the market, as the saying goes, also here it’s unclear if all of major-4 bottomed already or if that was only a b-wave bounce. Hard to say, but of course a break over $179.50 will mean major-5 is underway. It can simple become one-wave up that is not subdividing. Bears don’t want to see price drop below the 50d and 20d SMA or we may see a revisit of the 200d SMA. In essence also this ticker is in no-mans land with no clear edge right now.

AAPL daily

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AMZN: Still counts best as now in green minor-5 of red intermediate-iii of black major-3 of blue primary-III, as shown in the last update. Minor-3 hit the 1.382x extension, and minor-4 -also per textbook- then found support at the 0.618x extension and minor-5 should therefore now ideally move to the 1.764x extensin at $1585ish.

amzn monthly

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NFLX: Today I wanted to present an alternate count compared to the own I’ve featured in my recent updates (e.g. see here and here). In this count, which IMHO has a lot of merit price is very close to only completing major-3 of primary III, and not all of Cycle-1. Making the late-2015 high major-1 (instead of Primary III) and the early-2016 low as major-2 we have at current price levels a perfect 1.618x Fib-extension being reached. Price should then, for major-4, drop back to the 100% extension at around $206, which was prior resistance and right around the upper blue trendline. From there we should see major-5 take price to the 200% extension at ideally $332.

nflx weekly.png

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GOOGL: Like AAPL, for example, also here it is unclear if the 4th wave has bottomed has bottomed or not. If not, then the current move up is a b-wave that could go as high at $1150-$1170. A drop below the 50d SMA will be considered as Bearish. Also here no trading edge anymore for a long position. Stops can be place at 50d SMA… I wished things were clearer, but they simple are not.

GOOGL daily

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EA: Still in intermediate-v of major-3 and the weekly chart still looks good to reach the $135-$140 target.

EA Monthly

The script on the daily chart is following the price action still pretty well on the smaller scale of this 5th wave. Looks like $135ish will be attained. After that it’s back to high 90s. Thus longs should be careful as upside potential is marginal.

EA DAILY

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TSLA: Still counts best as intermediate-c of major-4 being underway and price is now in minor-b up. Price is below the 200d SMA and thus in a long term down trend. The alternative is that major-4 already bottomed in some sort of failed flat manner (dotted black line) right at support. But, I don’t like those kind of constructed counts. For now I continue to look for $270s for all of major-4. Note how complex this correction is, hence why I hardly ever recommend shorting corrections at this degree because there’s too much whipsawing around for even the toughest, thickest skinned die-hard trader alive. Just wait for a bottom is in.  The only option the Bulls have left is a i,ii wave count off that “failed 4th low”, but we need to see price drop, and then break above the 200d SMA and about $360 to be certain the run to $420 has started. Until then… no thanks I am not touching this stock.

TSLA daily.png

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PCLN: Still counts best as being in (black) major-4 with (red) intermediate-b now completed and (green) minor-c most likely underway. It almost retraced 76.4% of the prior (red) a-wave and did so in a clear 3-wave pattern, with wave-c being 5-waves. A standard c=a relationship targets around $1535 and that’s right where I’d ideally like to see major-4 bottom. Also this is a stock/trade with no edge. Better wait for bottom and buy signal than to try to squeeze money out of such unpredictable corrections.

PCLN Weekly