FAANG + BABA updates 04/10

FB: Major-4 may have completed at the 1.382x extension. A break over $162.50 (prior resistance in this decline) can target $170. Note price is still below all its important moving averages: from the 20 day to the 200 day and this makes the chart not as bullish as say it was in for example August last year. Cont’d below.

FB daily

The weekly chart shows price so far bottomed at the 23.6% retrace of the entire major-3 wave and that is often the minimum requirement for a 4th wave. The weekly A.I. is giving an ideal buy signal, but we’ll preferably have to wait to this week’s close to see if it holds as it’s based on closing prices. If so, it favors the odds of a major-4 low has struck indeed. Hence, IMHO so more patience is required before going long. One can play it two ways: wait for price to move and close above the 200day SMA or wait to see if this week will give an ideal buy signal. I will update FB again early next week.

fb weekly

*************************************************************************************

AAPL: Is price forming an ending diagonal 5th wave or is it a leading diagonal 1st wave of wave-5? For now I see price moving higher to about $187 to complete the c-wave. A move above $190 will mean we’re dealing with a standard impulse IMHO and can adjust price targets as such. I still think AAPL is a good long as it’s now back above all its important simple moving averages: from the 20 day to 200 day and all indicators are pointing up.

aapl-daily 1

*************************************************************************************

AMZN: This chart continues to give me “fits” as there are so many waves to count. So I re-analyzed the entire thing and all charts from daily to monthly and here’s what I think is transpiring.

Let’s start with the weekly chart. I’ve major-4 at the late-2015 low and then a nicely subdividing 5th wave up, with what counts best as intermediate-iv about complete. Than intermediate-v should complete major-5 of Primary III. Currently all weekly TIs are on a sell, but a higher close next week will turn those back up and into buys. Thus the next 8 trading sessions will be critical. Cont’d below.

AMZN WEEKLY

The monthly chart had to be adjusted the most, but now alligns well with the weekly chart other than that the mid-2015 two-months long correction is causing some trouble here. Here it means primary III may have topped instead of iii of 5 of III (as in the weekly chart) and primary IV is underway to ideally $1050-$950… Given where the overall market currently is (major-4), the count shown on the weekly chart makes the most sense. But, president Trump is after AMZN and for that the monthly chart makes sense. None the less, if at the end of next week the weekly TIs are back to buy I will go with this chart. Thus patience is required, as usual. until then, IMHO better to stay out if not long yet. IF long already: make sure you have a solid exit strategy in place!

amzn monthly

*************************************************************************************

NFLX: Is a bit in the same spot as AMZN, but may have a clearer Primary III top in place. For now I go with this count, as the daily and weekly chart line up well . The weekly chart also shows how (black) major-3 hit the 1.618x extension to the T (classic 3rd wave target) and how the recent high hit the 2.00x extension to the T (classic 5th wave target -i.e. major 5- when the 3rd wave moves to the 1.618x extension). Hence, based on this it is logical to build the case that Primary III topped and we should see Primary IV drop to possible as low as $200… I know this is counter the major indices count, but given that a final 5th wave is underway it is not as powerful as fewer stocks will participate, and not all stocks are always in sync with the indices.

NFLX dailynflx weekly

*************************************************************************************

GOOGL: Currently price is playing tug-of-war with the 200d SMA, but came last week very close to the c=a (100%) extensions for a nice flat-intermediate-iv correction. The TIs are slowly crawling higher, but price does need to move and close above the 200d SMA for a few session and preferably above $1050 to be more certain the low is in. Cont’d below.

GOOGL daily

The weekly chart supports the count shown on the daily chart and we can see price found nicely support at prior resistance (green horizontal line). Although the ideal iv target zone is a bit lower, it doesn’t have to go that low. For now the weekly TIs are still pointing down and we’ll have to wait to next friday to see if we get buy signals or not. If so, price will be firmly above its 200d SMA and the 1050 level and $1370 is the next target. Remember trading is all about low risk and if we need to forego $100/share to gain $200 with absolute certainty I am all for it 🙂

googl weekly

*************************************************************************************

BABA: quick look at the monthly chart reveals that major-4 of primary-III is getting close to completion, as major-2 took 3 months and the current correction off the $206ish high is now 3 months underway as well. Price has so far held upper support. but can still try to go for lower at $165-$155. There are no signs of a reversal yet, as it is still struggling with the 200d SMA on the daily chart (not shown). Note that the wave-degree can be moved down one level assuming Cycle-1 and 2 are primary I and II, but that’s just nomenclature for now as I still expect a rally of the coming low to about 220+ for this 5th wave.

baba monthly