F A N G updates 07/13

Before I go on a two week break, I wanted to provide updates on some of the most followed stocks, the F A N G. None are IMHO really painting a pretty picture going into earnings season so please make sure to protect profits… Rather safe than sorry.

FB: is IMHO close to completing five waves up off its late-March low. Question is if that’s only intermediate-i of major-5 or all of Primary-I. Its a rather expensive guess if one were so inclined to hold positions going into earnings (July 25, AH). Note the nice iv=ii relationship and how price is inching closer to the ideal v=i relationship (276.40% extension) at $212.

FB daily

FB’s weekly chart shows price is getting indeed very close to the ideal major-5 target I’ve had for a long tome: 210-220. Negative divergence is starting to setup on the weekly RSI5. The MACD is doing a classic “5th wave blow off advance”. IF Primary-I (or Cycle-1) is indeed complete FB should eventually fall back to around $75ish…

fb weekly

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AMZN: The weekly chart has price getting very close to the ideal 200% extension of minor-1, from -2, for minor-5. Note how minor-3 was exactly to the 161.80% Fib-extension, minor-4 almost to the 100% extension. Picture perfect and there’s thus no reason to believe price will do anything else but target the 200% Fib-extension. In addition, a 5=1 relationship targets the same level: $1842. There’s thus very little upside left. Note the negative divergences on the weekly MACD, and OBV. IF my bigger picture count is correct than this should conclude Primary-III and Primary-IV will take hold and not be pretty.

AMZN WEEKLY

The monthly chart shows AMZN’s astronomical surge in price, but as we all know: nothing lasts or goes up forever and a nasty decline should be around the corner soon. Earnings are due July 26, AH. I expect Primary-IV to bring price back to around $1400-1150 before all is said and done.

amzn monthly

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NFLX: May have completed minute-v of minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3 here with a failed 5th. Alternatively an Ending Diagonal is forming which is still trying to reach the ideal $445 target. But it’s not necessary. Earnings are reported July 16, AH. Hence, be cautious especially since the daily A.I. has now given an ideal sell-signal and the RSI5 and MACD are on sell after negative divergence. Similarly the OBV is not confirming this week’s price high.

NFLX daily

The weekly chart also shows negative divergences, and either major-3 of primary-V or major-3 of Primary-III topped. Regardless, we should expect a major-4 to take hold and move price to about $300-280.

nflx weekly

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GOOGL: Same story here. Price has made 5 waves up off its late-March low and could push as high as $1230 for an ideal 5=1 relationship, but it has already surpassed minor-3 and made a new ATH (surpassing intermediate-iii completed late-January) and has thus met all requirements needed for a 5th wave: to make a higher high. There’s negative divergence on the MACD and heavy negative divergence on the daily OBV: less and less money is poured into this stock. Since liquidity drives markets… well…

GOOGL daily

The weekly chart is not much better with also potential negative divergence on the weekly MACD (needs to turn down to confirm) and the money flow index is also not keeping pace with the higher prices. Of course -like FB- the whole advance can have only been wave-1 of wave-v of major-3, but price is close to reaching the 123.60% and 138.20% Fib-extensions of major-1, measured from major-2, and that’s enough to satisfy a 3rd wave extension. Alphabet is set to report earnings July 25, and given these charts it seems upside reward vs downside risk is not very favorable as of now regardless if the pending high is only wave-1 of –v or all of major-3

googl weekly