F A A N G + Z updates 06/14

FB: Only daily chart I will show in today’s updates. Looks like, and counts best as, minor-5 of intermediate-iii underway. Note how minor-4 bottomed right at the 38.2% retrace of minor-3 and where minute-c = a. Picture perfect. Now minor-1 was about $20 long and normally 5=1, but it can be anywhere from 0.5 to 0.764x 1, so the max upside I see is $185+$20 = $205: the red 238.20% Fib-extension. The other 5th wave Fib-extensions target:

  • 185 + 0.5 x $20 = $195 (already passed it!)
  • 185 + 0.618 x $20 = 197ish (close!)
  • 185 + 0.764x $20 = 200ish (the red 223.60% extension)

Thus based on this analysis we should look for $197-205. It’s getting close. Depending on what it exactly will be, intermediate-iv should then reduce price by about $20ish. Since intermediate-iii is already extended (well-passed the normal 1.618x Fib-extension) I don’t expect intermediate-iv to be more than v=i.

FB daily

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AAPL: I have major-5 of Primary-V underway. I don’t see much more beyond $220-$225. That’s another 15% or so, which can be nice for swing trades (after a pullback) but given AAPL has already risen over 120% since it’s February 2016 low and over 1800% since its March 2009 lows, long-term investors clearly need to start the risk/reward analyses and determine their exit strategy. No need to run for the exits yet, but if you don’t have an exit strategy in place, PLEASE contact me and I can help you.

aapl weekly

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AMZN: Continues to track well with minor-3 of intermediate-v of major-5 of Primary-III underway. Should hit around $1761, then minor-4 to ideally ~$1628 and minor-5 should complete III at around $1844. Believe it or not, but Primary-IV can then fall back to around $1100… I am not sure anybody would like to sit through that…

AMZN WEEKLY

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NFLX: Nothing has changed from last week’s update other than that price has gone even higher… Still looking for major-3 to complete in the $420 region (see daily chart below, OK I admit, one more daily chart 😉 for the micro-count: minute-iii is close to completion. Swing traders can sell the iii high at around $402 and re-buy minute-iv retrace at around $360 for a last run to $420. Longer term investors can hold to $420 zone and should then start to re-assess and think off possible exit strategies. IF you don’t have one you are flying blind and are doomed to loose a lot of money….

nflx weekly.png

NFLX daily

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GOOGL: The current advance off the intermediate-iv low made this spring (right at support 🙂 ) counts best as a diagonal. It is either a leading diagonal minor-1 wave, like in 2017 or an ending diagonal intermediate-v wave. Hard to know before hand. But if price fails to make a new ATH before the Diagonal completes, I favor the minor-1 scenario. IF it does reach around the v=i target of $1225 than I will favor the v scenario.

googl weekly.png

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Z: Counts best as minor-5 of intermediate-iii of major-3 underway. Ideal target is the 1.618x Fib-extension at $67.95. Then intermediate-iv back to 61-58ish before v takes hold and rips price back up to 75ish. That’s the ideal path forward for now.

Z monthly