F A A N G update 11/20

Some of you have asked when I expect the larger bounces to materialize. This is always the hardest part of any forecast as getting price right is difficult enough as is. We probably won’t see a more sustained rally until December IMHO.

FB: Let’s start with the weekly chart. Looks like FB is racing towards around $120 (+/-5) for major-a of primary II, which is strong support. From there we should expect a big bounce back to ideally the recent congestion zone (the blue 23.6% retrace) at $170+/-5, from where the next devastating move down should occur: major-c. Using a simple c=a relationship it should target the 76.4% retrace at around $65 +/-5ish to complete Primary II. Just my opinion: By then I don’t think many of the current executives are still with FB, Zuckerberg included.

fb weekly

Shorter term it looks and counts best as FB is wrapping up a bunch of 4th and 5th waves into the $117 +/- 5 target zone. There are 0 buy signals anywhere, everything is pointing down, hence expect lower prices.

FB daily

 

AAPL: Lets start this stock off with a detailed review of the Elliott wave counts since the all important February 2016 low. I can indeed count 5 waves up and price is now in either intermediate-a or major-a of Cycle-1. A 4th and 5th wave (grey) should do the trick and ultimately target around $165+/-5p, which will close the “May 2018 earnings gap up”. From there I expect price to rally back to the break down level: $200, before the next leg lower commences and targets $120-$125 for all of major-a or Primary A.

aapl since 2016 lows

Below is my big picture Elliott wave count of AAPL and IMHO it clearly shows a nice 5 waves up since its IPO in 1984. A Cycle has ended. Please note the gap on the monthly chart at around $120. Right where the daily chart suggest we should see major-a/Primary A to bottom. For now there are no signs anywhere of a turn, and we should simple expect lower prices first as outlined above.

AAPL MONTHLY

 

AMZN: Contrary to AAPL, this stock should still have one more leg up to new ATHs (Primary V), but for now a larger correction (Primary IV) is still underway. I expect price to target the blue 38.2% retrace for major-a of IV at around $1260 +/- 10, before major-b takes price to around $1700 +/- 100. From there major-c should commence and take price back to $900 +/- 100.

amzn monthly

This big-picture path forward fits with the daily chart, as we should likely see a bit of a bounce (green minor-b) first, before minor-c takes hold. Note the c=a and c=a relationships (two different wave degrees) target $1200-1250, which fits with the 38.2% retrace. A triple confluence of price targets. This is often a very good and strong sign that price will go there and price will also bounce from there.

AMZN DAILY

NFLX: After careful review of the short to long term charts, also to align them with the indices, I now view this stock as in Primary-IV. The recent top was NOT a one-degree lower major-3 top. Primary-IV is now underway, and should eventually with a few bounces along the way target ideally $200. This is where c=1.618x a, where blue uptrend line support is and where horizontal support is. From there I expect at a minimum a bounce back to $300-$320, but ideally a sustained rally to new ATHs. For now all my systems are on a sell from daily to monthly and I see therefore no reason to buy until the price target zone ($200 +/- 10) is reached.

nflx weekly.png

GOOGL: As long as this stock is holding the $1000 level I see no reason to change my perspective in that it is close to completing major-4, with a major-5 rally to $1435ish soon underway. Why? Because so far this stock is exhibiting a classic Fib-based 5-waves impulse. Now the one degree higher major-4 wave is right at the lower degree intermediate-iv wave level. Classic! It is right at the 76.4% retrace, after wave-3 reached the 1.382x Fib-extension. Classic! Hence, until proven otherwise, the below count is my preferred. This “otherwise” is a drop below $920.

googl weekly

Hence, using the above parameters ($1000 and $920) one has a well-defined buy target zone and stop loss level.

GOOGL daily