F A A N G + TSLA update 03/28

FB: Firmly in major-4 now dare we say 😉 This is of course on the premise that FB will make 5 waves up… that’s not a guarantee, but most likely. Anyway, major-4 should target the 23.6 to 38.2% retrace of all of major-4 and price is now right the at 23.6% retrace. The daily chart shows price has reached the 1.382x extension of (red) intermediate-a, measured from b. The daily RSI5 and weekly RSI5 have become sufficient oversold for a bounce to materialize, and to then setup positive divergences on a lower price low later. Like in late-2016 at the intermediate-iv of major-3 low. This bounce could reach the $165ish zone, but at this moment it’s more wishfull thinking than anything else. Anything can happen from here. For now, price is firmly in a downtrend and well-below its 200d SMA. That means: don’t long it. Bad things happen below the 200d SMA. Clearly!

fb weeklyFB daily

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AAPL: I’ve re-analysed the weekly charts and have come to the following two counts. The first is that major-4 is underway, like the market, and therefore it is my preferred count, and it should bottom in the 160-147 range for a 23.6-38.2% retrace. Note the lower range is right where intermediate-iv bottomed, which makes sense as 4th waves tend to bottom in the prior -one-degree-lower- 4th wave area. From there major-5 should take AAPL to $200-$220

AAPL weekly 1

The bearish count is that Primary V topped of Cycle 1. We need to see price drop substantially lower than where it currently is (below 140 is a start) to start to suggest this is the case. Just keep it in mind, as it’s my alternate count for now. Hence, if you want to go long the most likely major-5 wave, in the target zone (preferably as low as you can get it), then set a stop below $140.

AAPL weekly 2

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AMZN: Preferably has topped for Primary III. Note how the last 5 (green) minor-waves adhered pretty well to the typical Fib-extension and retrace pattern for an impulse. wave-2 down to the 0.764 retrace of wave-1 (not shown), wave-3 to almost the 1.618x extension of wave-1, wave-4 almost to the 1.00x extension of wave-1, wave-5 just above the 1.764x extension of wave-1. Classic. This adds weight to the evidence that (blue) Primary III has topped. I expect primary IV to drop back to the 1000-950 zone. That’s solid S/R and also close to the 38.2% retrace of all of Primary III.

amzn monthly

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NFLX: This one is a bit trickier, so lets start with the preferred count as shown in the first chart: Major-3 of Primary III topped and major-4 is underway. It should ideally reach the 240-230 zone, which is the 38.2% retrace of major-3 measured from the major-2 low, but it can possible go as low as $200, but not as likely imho. The weekly A.I. is on a sell and the RSI5 and MACD are also pointing down, wanting to see lower prices.

nflx weekly

The alternate counts are the following, and they are unfortunately diametrically opposed. Remember though, these are alternates, so please focus on the primary count in the first chart: Cycle-1 already topped. To confirm this count, price needs to go below 190 for starters. Thus, there’s some ways to go. The alternate Bullish count is that minor-3 of intermediate-iii of major-5 of primary V has topped. This is in a way similar to the primary count, as green minor wave-4 should also drop to the 240-230 zone, and then price will rally to new ATHs. However, here that would mean “only” iii of 5 of V has topped and we need to see one more iv and v-wave to complete the cycle wave. Hence, and however, it means there are two bullish counts and 1 bearish. Thus I favor the Bullish camp for now. If you are not long NFLX yet, I would suggest to please wait for price to reach the 240-230 target zone and one can set a stop below 200 or at your own comfort level. Those who are long should start to protect profits and capital!

nflx weekly 2

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GOOGLE: The daily chart shows how it’s making a flat correction. Question is if it will be a c=a relationship or if c will extend? Impossible to know before hand, though what is most important is that price closed below its 200d SMA yesterday and has failed today to rally above it. That’s bearish, pure and simple, until it changes.

GOOGL daily

If we zoom out to the weekly chart we see there’s good support around the 925 area (+/- 15). It’s where the 50-61.8% retrace of intermediate-ii are (red) and where the 61.8% extension of major-1 is (black). We can clearly see how (green) minor-4 of intermediate-iii spend considerable time in that zone, before lift off. Since major-3 fell short of it’s typical 1.236 to 1.618x target zone, major-5 is likely going to extend and I below looking for as high as 1500+. Thus buying the support zone (910-940) could be a nice low risk, high reward opportunity. Since all analyses are wrong till proven right, one could place stops just below 900 or depending on comfort level.

googl weekly

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TSLA: OMG, the electric car company is in serious trouble. Why? There’s only been 3 waves up off the IPO. Blue Primary A, B, C. Why? Because of the overlap with blue primary A (2014 price high) and major-1 of primary C (2016 price high). Thus, the current decline, can’t be a 4th wave of either major or primary degree. In addition, the rally of the July 2017 low, also only hit the 161.80% retrace, whereas it normally would rally to the 200% extension for a typical 5th wave (black dotted arrow).

Thus, the rally of the blue primary-B low, which is a classic 50% retrace of the prior Primary-A rally, falls well short of how a typical 3rd wave should behave. Hence, what I anticipate now is for Primary A to bottom in the 200-240 zone. Than a rally to 300-320 zone, follow by a very nasty decline to $125-$20… I know that’s a huge range, but there’s simple no data yet availble to forecast this C-wave and thus we need to go by the extensions we typically expect (c=a to c=1.618x a). Bottom line, TSLA may be running out of steam… uhhh electricity… as the chart is not looking healthy. The only alternate is if the whole advance off the February-2016 low was one large 1st wave, and now a huge 2nd wave is happening. However, I find that option much less likely given where the markets are currently in their (final) stages of this Bull-run off the March 2009 lows. For now, all the weekly technical indicators (TIs) are pointing down, wanting to see lower prices. Price is right at the purple 200w SMA and a break and close below it can be considered as a bearish sign.

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