F A A N G T update 08/23

FB: Looks close to completing wave-a of primary II. Not sure yet if it is major-a or only intermediate-a. Probably on the latter, albeit the former is shown. Note the somewhat positive divergence on the technicals; with price carving out a similar price low, while the techncials didn’t (green and blue arrows). A bounce to  the red target box, likely the upper end this time, possible as high as to close the earnings gap-down, but don’t get greedy.

FB daily.png

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AAPL: To be honest, I’ve never really liked trading and Elliot Wave-counting this stock. It’s a tricky one. Looks easy in hindsight, but it has a lot of “tricks” up its sleeve. So now we’re likely left with a i, ii, iii, iv of –3 count or alternatively a 3, 4, 5, iii, iv count. Originally the green, minor-wave, Fibs argued for the latter but the very shallow retrace from the 161.80% extension didn’t even reach the 100% extension, and was only 2-days. Doesn’t really fit with that wave degree. The RSI5 and MACD just made uptrend highs, which fits better with a wave-iii of –3 of iii scenario. Hence, that’s my preferred POV. Wave-iv should not drop below $210, and then wave-v of 3 should rally ideally to the red 138.20% Fib-extension at ~$220, before wave-4 moves price down to the 100% extension at $~210 and wave-5 back up ideally tot he 161.80% extension at ~$230 to complete intermediate-iii. That’s the ideal path forward. Let’s see if it pans out this way!?

aapl-daily 1.png

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AMZN: My preferred count has it closing in on the minor-5 top, but it could already have topped earlier this month. A drop below the recent wave-iv low tells us the latter is the case, and that low will then be a wave-a low instead. Now price will have to drop all the way below $1730 (the late-July low) to tell us it has peaked for a much larger top, and that the stock is not subdividing off that low. If it, say, bottoms at around $1825 and then starts moving higher and makes a new ATH it means this minor-4 wave is subdividing. So be patient and watch-full. For now we do have a lot of negative divergences on the techncials (red arrows), which argue in favor of downside, not upside.

AMZN DAILY.png

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NFLX: Price has now declined for a full month, but found support where it had to: $310-$300 region for a nice double c=a relationship on two wave-degrees. Question is if that was all of major-4 or only intermediate-a of major-4. If we look at the weekly chart we see price has reached the ideal major-4 target zone, which argues for this low being in place. There’s, however, no 1, 2 set up yet in place off the recent low, hence we should be patient. When that happens and a break over the wave-1 occurs we can be much more certain major-5 to new ATHs is underway.

NFLX daily

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GOOGL: The daily chart’s wave-count suggest strongly 5-waves up off the late-March low have completed and argue for a major-3 top. Price is however still in the black uptrend channel and thus up is up. A break below it, which will coincide with a break below the 50d SMA, will be a good first sign major-4 is underway. Of course there’s only pure confirmation this is the case when price drops below the late-June low ($1100); as it then is making a lower low, and it takes the possibility of a subdividing minor-5 wave off the table.  However, also the weekly chart argues for a wave-3 high.

GOOGL daily.png

Namely, price reached the 138.20% Fib-extension of major-1, measured from wave-2, which is also an ideal wave-3 target. In addition, also using the weekly candles, we can count 5-waves up off the intermediate-iv low. IF this count is correct, than major-4 should target the 76.40% fib-extension at around $1000, which also happens to be very strong support (as wave-iv also bottomed there). Using ideal wave-relationships, its all we can go by, major-5 should than target the 176.4% extension at $1400+ for a standard 5=1 relationship to complete Primary V.

googl weekly

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TWTR: Still counts best as major-4 being close to completion and major-5 soon underway. The weekly TIs became rather oversold and are now turning back up. A move over $37.50 will be a good sign higher prices are to be expected.

TWTR Weekly