Last updated April 30, 2019
The recent advance off the 2018 low to the 2018 EOY high looks and counts best as only three waves up: hence corrective. This means the preferred POV is that a b-wave took place and now a c-wave is underway. This in turn means major-2 is most likely becoming a flat correction, which can either be regular (a=b=c), irregular (c>a=b) or failed (c<a=b). We don’t know yet, but with the 62% retrace still at mid-27s it may want to target that level first. The alternate is a set of nested 1st and 2nd waves, but we need to see price move above $47 from current levels to make that the preferred count. A break below (green) minor-b ($36) will take the alternate option off the table as than the possible wave-2 moves below the start of the possible wave-1, which is not allowed.