EEM, EWZ updates 11/28

EEM: Originally I used Freestockcharts.com’s chart, see here, but when I looked at the one on stockcharts.com I found that the current rally exceeded already that off the 2007 high, while on the former platform it showed it hadn’t… Since I trust stockcharts.com more I will use its chart for EEM going forward. It doesn’t change much to my analysis.

What I did find, however, is that the early 2018 high was made on five waves up, which is different from my August analysis (see here), but it means that was most likely major-1 of Primary III and major-2 is close to completing.  Price has almost reached the (red) 61.8% retrace. Note that at the high price had reached the 176.40% Fib-extension of intermediate-i, measured from wave-ii, which is a classic 5th wave target. So for now, we need to see that breakout AND preferably a push over $45 to be rather certain wave-3 is underway.

EEM

EWZ: As you can see, EWZ (Brazil) is the main underlying driver for EEM. I did a last update on EWZ a month ago (see here), and hence not too much has changed, but we can also here start to make the case for a wave-2 low being in place. A break above the early 2018 high (wave-1) will greatly help to confirm this and that wave-3 is then most likely underway (baring any irregular b-wave, but if that’s the case we’ll deal with it when it comes). A break below the recent lows will target around $25+/-2, while a break above wave-1 will target upward of $95-$100 for wave-5. Note, I’ve labeled these waves as “major”, but we should move them one degree higher to “Primary”, and thus once wave-5 completes Cycle-3 (C3) completes.

ewz