DG, PCLN, SBUX updates.

DG: It’s been a while since I updated the Dollar General (DG) stock (see here), so it’s time to provide a follow up, albeit not much has changed since. All we got “extra” since June is more overlapping price action to the 62% retrace of the prior (black) major-a wave low made in late-2016. Clearly since then price has made an overlapping advance. Very hard to try to make that into a 1st and 2nd wave, as then there should be not as much overlap, aka confusion. Thus, I expect price to move down soon in a c-wave, and target the blue 50-62% retrace level between $57 and $50 to complete all of Primary II. Once that wave completes, primary III (a massive bull run) should start. BUT, first we need to see price drop below $65 to be sure this c-wave is underway. Thus shorts, hold your horses. Longs as well, because there is likely a much lower level we can buy at. Once price gets into the target zone, we can re-assess how low it wants to go.

DG monthly

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PCLN: In my previous updates, see here,  and links to prior updates there in,  I was preferably looking lower as PCLN, like DG above, had an overlapping advance that strongly (very high likelihood) suggested a b-wave was underway and a c-wave would follow. Correctly so, as price dropped >14% today on its Q3 earnings miss. This is the power of Elliot Wave!! Now, price has already reached the c=a extension (see chart below) I had set back then for (red) intermediate-c of (black) major-4. However, it may very well extend lower to the 1.382 and 1.618x extensions. Hence, the red target zone box. Since there’s no reversal yet, it’s IMPOSSIBLE to tell if the low is already in our not. Given today’s decline I am pretty convinced it’s not. Thus longs should NOT be initiated until we see first an impulse back up followed by a decline, which can be bought. Until then; patience!!

PCLN Weekly

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SBUX: Dropped hard on earnings last week (November 3, see my tweet with the After Hours price action here), getting very close to my ideal price target of $50ish (it reached $52 AH). Then the next day it opened higher and rallied like crazy. This is why one should never play earnings; i.e. position your self just before earnings. Longs and shorts can get their faces ripped off in minutes… It’s better to wait until the following day. SBUX did also the same at the earnings before, but then in reverse. It rallied to $62.50 only to open at $55 the next day… ouch…

But that’s all water under the bridge. Now price is trying to get above the 200d SMA, which means it’s -at least for me- back on the long radar. Why? Because the likelihood of good things to happen (continued upside) increases when price is above this very important, long term, moving average. There’s a gap from that prior earnings at $57.5-$58.5, which may get filled first. Since there’s no 5-waves up yet, I can’t give any upside projections yet.

SBUX daily