DG, MCD, ROKU, SBUX updates 12/19

DG: The first plot shows the EWT count I had orginally and which would mean the current advance off the xxx low is a major-b of Primary-II wave. This is possible for sure, but the 2nd plot shows what’s IMHO a more correct count which has major-5 of Primary I completing. The issue with this chart is the advance from the 2013 EOY low to the mid-2015 high. It’s a bit overlapping and looks more like 3-waves instead… Cont’d below.


Simple ignoring all that, then the low made in the middle of this year is a nice 38.2% retrace of all of major-3, which is typical for a 4th wave. Price is now in intermediate-iv of major-5 dropping back to about $86 +/- $2 before intermediate-v takes price to ~$100+. A drop below $80 from current levels will be the first serious warning sign Primary I topped (set stops accordingly) and a break below $65 will confirm that $50s are next.



MCD: Time to update the long term chart. Well, there’s not much to update as price is chucking along really well and is getting very close to completing intermediate-iii of major-3 of Primary V. The ideal target for iii is $179 +/- 25c and price is right in the 138.20-161.80% extension zone, where 3rd waves typically top. Not shown here, but the technical indicators on the daily chart are all starting to negatively diverge rather heavily. And although divergence is only divergence till it isn’t, when it starts to happen at crucial Fib-extensions for crucial wave degrees it must be taken into account. Intermediate-iv should now ideally find support in the $153.50 +/- 25c area, before v takes hold to about $195 for all of major-3. Note there’s thus a $20 downside risk and $20 upside potential before an even larger correction takes hold. Please keep this in mind.



ROKU: For those of you who follow me on TWTR, you’ve seen this weekly symmetry chart before. I tweeted it when it was trading at mid-$40s and look where it is now 🙂 Total no brainer. Beauty huh!? 🙂 Why? Cont’d below chart.


Namely, early December, price broke strongly above the red down trend line from the top of major-3. That’s a first serious sign the down trend off that high ended. It then consolidated for 1 day and moved higher the next 2, etc. Based on simple symmetry (green box) price should target $57.50 and today we got $57.75. Enough to complete minor-3? I do expect ROKU to impulse higher in a final set of 4th and 5th waves to about mid- to high-$60s. But, first I expect it to drop to low $50s for minor-4. A break below $47.50 will put this count on its very edge.



SBUX: Reached the 61.8% retrace of the prior decline to the T last week and has since started to decline. The whole advance off the August low is a sloppy overlapping mess. One may say it could be a leading diagonal triangle, but the black arrows show a nice a=c relationship that was hit last week at the high. For now I prefer the abc-count over an impulse count. Note that the On Balance Volume (OBV) never really got moving; which means there’s not that much money flowing into the stock. A warning sign.

SBUX daily

That brings me to the monthly chart, where you can see the bigger picture count and technicals for SBUX. At last week’s high and using a c=a relationship (red arrow), price should drop to the blue 23.6% at around $48-$47. That’s a common retrace for a 4th wave and SBUX will then be building a multi year Bull-flag, from which Primary V can break out (above $61) real nice to target $70s at a minimum.

sbux monthly

For now, the overlapping price action, (internal) c=a relationships of the recent advance and the 61.8% retrace being hit tell me to prefer the ongoing Primary IV count. A drop below $55.50 will be the first serious sign the move to $48 is underway.