DAX – German DAX Composite

Last updated March 18, 2019.

My Elliott wave count is so far forecasting the price action well over the last few weeks, so I’ll keep it as is. Price has now reached the lower end of the ideal (green) minor-5 target zone (0.764 to 1.00x minor-1) and can thus still try to reach a little higher to complete what will be (red) intermediate-iii/c. The market can then decide if it will be a wave-iii (wave-iv low at around 11,400 then a wave-v to ideally 12,400 or all of (black) wave-b. The latter will mean the DAX will go back below its December low.

Bigger picture wise, it looks and counts best as if cycle 3 has completed and cycle 4 is underway. Price reached the 1.618x extension of the 2003->2007 rally (C1), measured from the 2009 low (C2): typical 3rd wave target. Now, ideally wave-4 (C4) should target the 100% extenions before wave-5 (C5) targets the 200% extension at around 15,500. That will then complete super cycle 3 and a very nasty correction and economic slow down will happen. For now, lets apply the daily chart to the monthly chart and so we should expect for the DAX a move below the December low, once this major-b has ran its course.