DAX update

DAXLast updated January 14, 2019.

As the DAX continues to move higher it adds weight to the evidence that after almost a 1 year decline major-a, possible primary A, is in. But, as said last week, there’s still lots of overhead resistance before any Bull can claim victory (red arrows). I don’t see this coming bounce exceed prior support at around 11,800-12,000 before the next leg down sets in.

Bigger picture wise, it looks like cycle 3 has completed and cycle 4 is underway. Note how price reached the 1.618x extension of the 2003->2007 rally (C1), measured from the 2009 low (C2): typical 3rd wave target. Now, ideally wave-4 (C4) should target the 100% extenions before wave-5 (C5) targets the 200% extension at around 15,500. That will then complete super cycle 3. The path forward for C4 is shown with the black dotted arrows.