DAL, TWLO updates 09/11

DAL: Price is retesting the 200d SMA breakdown level and has either complete Cycle 1 at the (black) major-5 high (of Primary-V) high; Primary IV was the June 2015 low. Or that was only intermediate-i  of major-5 (red “i?”): a subdividing major-5. Thus price is now either in major-b up, or in intermediate-iii up. In the former case, price should target the 50-76.4% retrace with an ideal target of around $51-$52, which is both strong resistance (red box) as well as close to the 61.8% retrace. In the bullish count price is now in minor-1 of intermediate-iii. No price target for that one yet.  Resistance is at the retrace levels, and the 200d and 50d SMAs. The Bulls have a lot of work to do. A break below last week’s low means the bullish count is off the table.  A break above the ATH means most likely the bullish count is underway, as we could still be dealing with an irregular-flat.

dal daily

Irregardless of count, price is now in an new uptrend, all TIs are pointing up, money is flowing back into the stock, buy signals abundant; hence higher prices are to be expected going forward into the next days, few weeks.

If we look at the monthly chart below, I could also count this as a Primary I wave up (one degree lower than the Cycle 1 wave), but it all means the same as explained in the daily chart: either the top is in, or the last wave up (wave 5) is subdividing higher. Time will tell, but for now I am looking higher.

DAL monthly


TWLO: new ticker I believe and worthy of an update as it’s back above its 200d SMA after what counts best as a 5-wave advance, with a nicely subdividing 3rd wave. Alternatively it’s a a-wave of a larger correction. Thus before we get too greedy. Lets set some price targets, because as long as the 200d SMA holds we’ll look higher. That can be a first stop-level for when entering a long position. Then a break over the black 1 high (which could also be an a-wave) targets from a c=a perspective $40, c=1.382x a: $45, c=1.618x a $47.35. Simple substitute c and a from 3 and 1 in the case of an impulse with an ideal wave-3 target zone of $45-$47.35. Once these price levels have been reached we can then better and again assess if it’s indeed an impulse (no overlap with wave 1 allowed) or simple a corrective rally. For now, as long as the 200d SMA holds, I look for higher prices.