COST, FIT, JD updates 11/27

COST: Preferred count has this ticker in (blue) primary IV, with (yellow) major-b underway and likely close to topping. Note that b-waves in a 4th wave can become irregular; i.e. exceed the length of the prior a-wave and thus can go higher than $185, but not to exceed 1.382x a; which is MAX $200ish. IF price exceeds $200, then the red “alt” count is operable. A drop below the end of (yellow) major-a ($150ish) means major-c is underway to around $115 for all of Primary-IV.

COST

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FIT: The problem I have here is that the advance off the August low to September high (“i?”) does not consists of 5 clean, non-overlapping, waves. Instead, clearly these overlap. It could be a leading diagonal triangle, but then the decline off that high to the recent early October low does consists of 5 clean non-overlapping (grey) waves. This tells me that FIT may not be done to the downside just yet and the current advance is only a b-wave up. I do need to see 5 waves up to off that “ii?” low to change my mind. Although it’s well above it’s 200d SMA now, it still needs to break above that red “resistance” zone (close >$7.00) to suggest the trend has firmly changed to up for the longer term. Hence, longs should have tight stops here. A break and close below the 50d SMA is a serious warning sign of lower prices to come.

fit daily

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JD: Two schools of thought here. The most bearish one is that primary I topped in August and Primary II is underway. To be more exact, price is now in (black) major-c of Primary II. The recent high was a 50% retrace of the prior major-a wave, which consisted of a picture perfect (red) intermediate-c = a relationship (blue down arrows).  A break below the 200d SMA is a first warning, as always, of lower prices to come. A break below the major-a low at $35.72 will confirm this count. Primary II should then drop to around $28, which is the prior major-1 and intermediate-i highs made in October and November last year: prior resistance becomes current support. Cont’d below.

JD daily

The 2nd train of thought is still bearish, but has longer term bullish implications. Here I use the monthly chart to count waves, instead of the daily scribbles as done above. This count has the August high as major-3 and major-4 completed at the $35.792 low, and the advance to the recent $42.77 high was (red) intermediate-i, with intermediate-ii now underway. A break above this int. med. i high will confirm this count and JD will then be well on it’s way to new ATHs. Cont’d below.

JD monthly

At the moment I am equally split between both counts. Both fit with technicals, etc. Hence for now the market needs to sort this thing out until there’s more clarity: break below $35.79: primary II. Break above $42.77 and intermediate-iii is underway. Simple. Longs can thus set there stops accordingly.