C, FB, NFLX, TSLA update 09/12

C: Counts best as having completed (red) intermediate-iv at last week’s low, after a nice classic 1-month long flat correction. The ideal target for intermediate-v using a standard 5=1 relationship is $70, but of course this can extend. For now all TIs are pointing up, the A.I. gave a buy yesterday, and the MACD today. The bollinger bands are expanding and price is at the upper band: strength. Hence, $70 seems a certainty. Please note that the Money Flow (MFI14) is very low; typical for a 5th wave. Once intermediate-v completes Primary I is complete; and a much larger correction is anticipated.

C daily

The advance off the late-august low looks sloppy and more like that of and ending diagonal triangle. I originally had the (grey) minute-iv low at the afterhours earnings low, but the cash market had different plans. I much prefer the count now with minute-iv at that August low.  Please note the severe negative divergence on the daily RSI and MACD. The latter barely gave a buy signal. All typical for a 5th of a 5th wave. A drop below the late-august low will confirm major-3 is in: then FB is starting to make lower lows. So far it’s only been making higher lows ever November 2016 low.

FB daily


NFLX: Price tagged the 23.6% retrace of (black) major-3 in August and then started to rally. Normally 4th waves retrace between 23.6-38.2% of the entire prior 3rd wave. Hence, so far price has done the minimum requirement for a major-4 low. However, when a 4th wave does want to seek out the 38.2% retrace it will put in an a-wave low at the 23.6% retrace. Hence, I cannot be entire certain yet that major-4 is in.  I must say the advance does look impulsive and the chart looks strong, with expanding bollinger bands and price at the upper band. All TIs are pointing up, with MACD and A.I. buy signals.


Assuming major-5 is underway and since a standard wave 5 normally equals the length of wave 1, and with (black major) wave 1 being from $80->$112 (see weekly chart below: early 2016 advance); then we should see $197ish to complete Primary V of Cycle 1: $165 + $32.

nflx weekly


TSLA: I still have it in major-4. Given that major-2 took 6 months I can’t rime the 8-day drop from the (black) major-3 low to early July low as all of major-4. Instead and therefore I continue to label that low as intermediate-a of major-4. Price is now in intermediate-b.  Question is how intermediate-b will transpire. Did it top early-August (red “b?”) or will it go higher (green arrow to red “b”) and turn major-4 into a (classic) flat correction? The upper labels with question marks represent the more immediate-bearish count, whereas the other count is the immediately bullish count and longer term bearish. Ultimately I still see major-4 target ~$290 before major-5 takes hold. Since 4th waves are monstrosities, it’s everybody’s best guess from the beginning until mid-way through how exactly the preferred path will be the market will chose.

TSLA daily