BTC updates 04/16

BTC: Broke above downtrend line, which is a positive development. Still looks best as to be in major-c of Primary B. Why? The recent decline to the late-April low was too deep for a regular 2nd wave. This looks more like a flat-type of correction within a larger downtrend. Hence, I expect major-c to target $10K-$12K. A break below the DT line and below $6.5K will mean we’ll see $4K first… Hence, BTC Bulls are not out of the woods at all, but may have some footing here.

BTC 1

*************************************************************************************GBTC: Is moving up as anticipated in last week’s update and from the week before. Here a bit more detail in that either “only” major-b of Primary C is underway to $14-94-$16.22, or Primary B is developing with a retest of the $20 level. Either way, intermediate-term I expect more upside especially since the 200d SMA has been reclaimed. But so far no surprises as my forecasts are following the price action nicely.

GBTC

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NYXBTC: I like to add this “simple layer” of additional evidence because it’s, well, so simple. Price broke back above its 200d SMA and is now also here targeting the downtrend lines. A break above can be longed, simple place a stop just below the 200d SMA. Ideally I’d like a stop based on a CLOSE below the 200d SMA as one can get intra-day whipsaws, which are only trigger stops to then refers. That’s how markets operate. So watch this closely. Note the NYXBT made a lower low in March compared to February and thus a possible 1,2 count off that February low is not possible. Thus BTC and GBTC don’t have that count either. Also, the green “GTFI” arrow is too optimistic as it was based on a breakout BEFORE price would make a lower low. Now this arrow can be set to around $11000-$11500 starting from the intersection between the green support arrow and red downtrend arrow. Note also price may not even be able to breach $9500. All in all I simple find the current setups in BTC and BTC related indices weak and not noteworthy of a long term buy and hold, but rather some quick trades until proven firmly otherwise!

NYXBT