Today I wanted to present the bearish case for Bitcoin as the GBTC is rather clearly working on 5-waves down off the mid-February high (labeled as blue B here). A nice v=i relationship targets the 200d SMA and I expect it to hold for a bounce to 16.25-18.00 before the next leg down takes hold and targets 8.25-4.25 depending on the extension of the c-wave (1.00x to 1.618x; respectively). There is simple 0 data to make any more accurate guess than such (the b-wave hasn’t even started yet…). That said, we can see that for this EWT count (which is holding a lot of water) the blue primary-B wave stopped right at the horizontal S/R zone and that the forecasted a-wave low to the 200d SMA will also find support right at the lower horizontal S/R zone. I always like it when the waves line up with technical S/R zones, etc. That gives it all more confidence.
This brings me to the NYSE bitcoin index, which is forming -what you can call- a large triangle. A break above the upper red downtrend line – which is following the 20d SMA- I would suggest a “GTFI” pardon my french 😉 signal as that’s a classic breakout. BUT, always be cognizant of a false breakouts, just like the S&P did two weeks ago. ALWAYS have stops in place because there are no guarantees. A break below the green uptrend line would be the opposite IMHO: GTFO -again pardon my french- as then price is unable to hold longer term trendline support. ALL in ALL I can’t really say BTC and its indices are in a bullish phase, rather the opposite.