BTC update 06/11

Ouch, but as I thought it would happen, BTC continues to move lower. Yesterday’s slaughter fest was step 1 IMHO as now support has become resistance. With the current drop moving below the normal 2nd wave retrace levels of even 0.786 I now count the price action as major-c of Primary-C underway to high $6s. Note the actual BTC chart is pointing MUCH lower…

GBTC

Moving on the the actual BTC chart we can observe several developments:

  1. lower bounces capped off by a trendline
  2. price at a very critical level, where a symmetry breakdown (red arrow)s targets around $1500
  3. using Fib-extensions for (black) major-c, measured from wave-b we have a c=1.618x extension targeting the exact same level.
  4. around 1800-1500 is strong support.

BTC 1

Hence, if the Bulls can get anything going soon, and if they will it may not amount more than yet another bounce to the upper black trendline (~$8000) before the real decline starts, we should expect based on the weight of the evidence for BTC to go much lower. I’ve been bearish for months on BTC, which has served us well, and continue to be Bearish on BTC until the Bulls bail this sinking ship and we see some major improvements in the charts. Until then, if the charts are bearish, we should be bearish. When the charts get Bullish, we should get Bullish. Until then…