BTC, GBTC, NYXBT updates 08/13

BTC: Continues to find support at the $6000 zone; showing how important it is, and that a break below it will indeed target much lower. Thus the crypto bulls will have to do anything in their power to keep price above it. Given the bear-market setup (price <20<50<200; also in the other BTC-related indices) I give the bears the benefit of the doubt. We may see another smaller bounce before the trap door opens. Time will tell, thus maybe we can short term be a little bullish for a bounce to $7000? A break above $8500 is now needed to start to suggest a much larger up move is in the making. Below $6000 and lights out for a while…


GBTC: Given how oversold the technical indicators are, it is not too much of a stretch of the imagination to expect a bounce and then a further decline. But, it’s not necessary as things can always get more oversold first. Price has been below its 200d SMA since mid-May and has made 0 progress; only gone lower. This shows why the 200d SMA is your “GTFO” cut off. Wait for price to get back above it before going long.  Price will have to move back above the red b-wave high at 12.25 to consider a more meaningful rally. But IMHO why bother? It’s below its 200d SMA…



NYXBT: Same deal here as with GBTC in that the technicals are very oversold suggesting a relief rally could be around the corner, but there’s no sign of a turn around yet and the past three months show things can stay oversold longer than one would think. Hallmark of a bear market. With price <20d <50d< 200d SMA, the setup remains that of a bearmarket indeed. Thus each rally must be considered a bounce until the charts turn bullish (e.g. price>20d>50d>200d SMA).