BTC, GBTC, NYXBT updates 08/06

BTC: The bounce moved over the black descending trendline and than back below. False breakout!? If so they are of course bearish. But not to be unexpected given I still few bitcoin as being in a bear market. A break below the June low targets most likely 4790-4260 for starters (black c=a and red c=a Fib-extensions). A break over the late-July highs is now required to target as high as 11210-12255. But for now the ball is in the Bear’s hands (see next charts) and I therefore view more upside as less likely until proven otherwise.

BTC

GBTC: Price has so far nothing but supported my thesis that we’ll see lower lows before higher highs. Over the past six months my calls have forecasted each directional move correctly. For example, it peaked right where I’d placed the red b-wave label for weeks and has now dropped below the important lower (orange) S/R levl at 12.20. Price is now also back below all SMAs. Thus the weight of the evidence is yet again bearish. Price will have to move back above the red -b price level ($13) to suggest a rally to the 200d SMA is underway. Otherwise I continue to see upside as bounce (lower highs) and an eventual breakdown to $7-$4.

GBTC

NYXBT: Likewise here, price is back below its 20d and 50d SMA and thus back in a bear market set up. Until that changes (price >20d > 50d > 200d SMA) we have to few this as a bear market. Pure and simple. The techncials reached overbought and price has dropped since as expected. The MACD is now back on a sell; adding further weight to the evidence that we should expect lower price going forward. A move over $8500 is required to suggest $10K-$12K is next.

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