BTC, GBTC, NYXBT updates 07/02

BTC: Wave-a dropped a bit lower than expected, but based on the GBTC and NYXBT indices it’s probably safe to say a more substantial bounce is now underway,. I still view the $8000 level as the target for that bounce. Note the c=a target hasn’t even been reached yet, which is most often the minimum extension for a c-wave, and thus I therefore still expect more downside from $8000. A break above this black trendline will have me alter my POV and start to look for $10000+.

BTC

GBTC: Also here, of course, the preferred wave-a of wave-c moved lower than anticipated, but that’s more the hall mark of a bear market than a bull: downside targets are exceeded, upside targets barely reached. In bulls its often the opposite. A larger bounce to at least $12 (the orange S/R zone) possible and ideally to the 200d SMA is now underway. I then expect wave-c to target $6; assuming wave-b reaches the 200d SMA at around $15. The alternate is that Primary-C has completed, but I’ve no confirmation that has happened. At a minimum we need to see 5-waves up and a 3-wave retrace to start to put more confidence in that possibility. Thus given the chart is in a bear market, we’ll treat it as a bear market until proven otherwise.

GBTC

NYXBT: The lower red trend line is holding as support and the RSI5 is starting to take off, indicating a more serious bounce is underway (>50). The MACD is giving a buy signal and we should see a bounce to at least the upper descending red trendline / 50d SMA at around $7500. A bounce to the 200d SMA cannot be excluded, but lets not get greedy; this is still a bear market and bear market’s bounce don’t often over reach…

NYXBT