Bitcoins fate is IMHO best explained using the Elliot Wave count on the GBTC index as it’s tracking along the price action rather well. The black line/count shows that a break below $11.75 will mean major-c of Primary C to $6 or lower is underway. The green/orange count shows that a break above $17 will target $20 for a larger B-wave with green c=a. This latter count is only a low odds alternate as I continue to prefer to look lower.
The NYXBT index does not look too promising -and may suggest the black count is operable- as price failed to hold the green uptrend line for support. This is a critical development as price MUST move and stay above it to gain more ground. Another move and close below its 200d SMA will likely be “fatal” and target $6000.
All of the above can be condensed into the actual BTC chart, where we really need to see a move over $10,000 for price to have a short at $13000 to $16700 (c=a to c=1.618x a). I am still not convinced we’ll see new ATHs as the price action since the February low is yet not convincing.