BOX – Box, Inc.

Last updated February 28, 2019

Monthly chart shown: First off, lets start with the IPO. Most companies that IPO do so when they are close to completing a major business cycle. One simple doesn’t IPO when a company is just started. Most IPOs will either rally then “crash” or crash straight out of the BOX (pun intended ;- ) Namely, when this business cycle completes it is reflected in the share price. Here you can see how BOX did a nice almost 62% retrace from $0 to its 2015 high at $25ish. Classic. Since it rallied in five waves up to complete what I have labeled as primary I. It could also be a cycle wave, with the prior two waves being super cycles. Who knows? Regardless, since BOX topped in 2018, it died a clean 5 waves down into late 2019, then retraced about 62% of that drop and now cratered 20% on earnings yesterday. Classic wave-a, b IMHO. Now wave-c should be underway to the support zone of $13.75-10.00. I personally prefer the upper end due to overlap of the 76.4% Fib-retrace and prior horizontal support. From there wave-III should kick in and target new ATHs. The alternative is that wave-II already bottomed in December 2019 and wave-1 completed yesterday and wave-2 of III is underway. But such a large drop from ATHs is often followed by lower prices (see for example FB). Thus if you are in the camp of wave-2 of III stops should be set at $15.50 (25% below current prices… ouch…) If you are patient, let this play out and see how low she wants to go. A break back above $25 from current levels simple means new ATHs and that will still be a great run. But before that happens there will be ample opportunity to get in, as another five wave up sequence must then materialize first. For now I am Bearish on BOX until proven otherwise.