BABA, INTC, TWTR, ULTA updates 11/30

BABA: Formed a wedge formation off the green 4 low. This likely suggests green 5 is in. It is at this stage uncertain if minor-3 of major-3 topped (see weekly chart below). But what we do know is that all technical indicators on the daily, weekly (and monthly albeit not shown) are on a sell, after heavy negative divergences. First target is $165 as EDTs are most often retraced to their beginning. Cont’d below.

baba daily

Depending on if this was (green) minor-3 or (black) amjor-3 we should see price bottom between $167-141: upper end of green target zone and lower end of black target zone (colors match wave-degree). There’s strong support in the $160-147 area (red box). Thus, the three zones (green, red and black) overlap in the $160-151 region. That’s where it’s thus most logical to expect a bottom to occur, from which BABA should make new highs.

baba weekly

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INTC: Last week, see here, I introduced this ticker as a good buy in the $44.05-44.75 zone with a stop loss at $42.00. Yesterday price dropped  to $43.77, and is up almost 3% today :-). Those who entered longs from that zone are now already nicely green as the prudent stop level never got hit: -)  Today’s candle means price broke above the (orange dotted) down trend line and the TIs are starting to point back up from oversold levels. The price target of $47.50 to $50.00 remains. Underlying options’ call buying is moderate but certainly there. Keep stops at $42 and let it run. When it keeps running, raise stops, with now a stop just below today’s low: $44.30.  Note how price adhered to the lower elliot wave trend channel line, and that minor-4 took equally long as minor-2: 15 days. Talk about symmetry 🙂

INTC daily YTD

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TWTR: Like many other big tech stocks, two days ago I anticipated a small pullback for a micro-4 wave and then a next push to $23 on TWTR. Clearly that didn’t happen and thus I have to adjust my analyses: anticipate, monitor, adjust. Apparently the market snug in a 4th wave somewhere between orange-2 and green minor-4. This is of course also still assuming TWTR is impulsing up. So far it has all the looks of it, and we’ll have to assume a bull till it isn’t. Stops are then put in place to protect our trades in the case of being wrong. That said, if minor-3 topped, then minor-4 is underway with an ideal target in the low 20s range. Since minor-2 took 4 days, I expect minor-4 to take a similar amount of time (just like with INTC). I suggest one starts scaling in longs between 20.45 and 20.00, with a stop at 18.50. That’s max a 10% loss. Kind of steep, but start off with 1/2 a position (thus the you are only incurring a 5% loss) and add more when the trade is going in the right direction. I suggest that stop loss level as that’s where minor-1 is; and 4th and 1st waves are not allowed to overlap in an impulse. If they do, it’s over…

TWTR daily

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ULTA: Member request as it has earnings AH today. I’ve two possible options for it. Both are bullish. Either major-4 bottom at the green uptrend channel (see first chart) or blue primary IV bottomed (see 2nd chart). If you’d ask me, I’d prefer the 2nd chart. This would mean ULTA should respond well to it’s earnings today. However, AND NOT SHOWN HERE, price is still well-below it’s 200d SMA (now at $256) and I simple cannot recommend buying anything that’s below it’s 200d SMA. Hence, I also always recommend not to position directly before earnings, and thus it’s wise to wait and see if ULTA can move back above it’s 200d SMA. If it does, then one could enter. Remember it’s all about being on the right side of the trade. Not about tops and bottoms. IF price goes above 256, then there’s still likely $100/share upside left… PLENTY. And then you have a low risk/high reward long instead 🙂

ULTA 2ULTA 1