BABA, FB, NLFX, TSLA updates 09/25

BABA: In last week’s update I was looking for one more possible little push up, with the caveat that “Hence, I wouldn’t want to bet too much on this possible 5th wave up, in case I overlooked 1 small wave some where… ” and today my warning that “the risk/reward is simple not there any more because once minor-3 completes, minor 4 should retrace to $155ish as $160-$150 is major support. That’s a much better entry level IMHO“. Today price confirmed my suspecion and warning; down 5%… Thus minor-3 is in. The alternate is that it is major-3, but let’s look at first support, which is  $160-$165 (green dotted uptrend lines).

baba daily

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FB: In last week’s update I was looking for a major-3 top, which got pretty much confirmed today as price broke below the late-august low and below the green uptrend channel, which has held price in check since December last year.

FB daily

The weekly chart below, shows that with today’s price action all TIs turned to sell: all want to see lower prices. First support is at the 20w SMA; $160 then the black dotted uptrend line: $157ish. Below that and the 23.6% retrace comes into play. Ultimately I see price drop to around the lower black dotted trendline. Often 4th waves tend to break below the trend channel, only to have the 5th wave whipsaw right back into it. In addition, strong support is at $130 followed by $110-$120, with the latter close to the ideal 38.2% retrace level.

fb weekly

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NFLX: Like the rest of tech fell also out of bed today. In my previous update, see here, I was looking for either a b-wave top or 5th-wave top. With price down 4-5% today and without making a new high I favor the b-wave high for a flat major-4 correction. Intermediate-c is now underway. Support for NFLX comes in at $165ish (intermediate-a), but buyers already stepped in there once so I don’t expect the same buying pressure again. The c=1.618x a extension targets $145, which is very strong support. This will complete an irregular flat correction for major-4. Hence, I’ll be looking to buy in that zone.

NFLX daily

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TSLA: Same story as with NFLX, and also last week I was looking for either a 5th wave or b-wave high to $402. We got $400… Not shabby huh 😉 The way price fell down over the past few days are hallmarks of a c-wave, while it was unable to reach the full Fib-extensions for a 5th wave. In addition, the advance off the July low is an overlapping mess. Thus the recent top counts IMHO best an b-wave for a flat major-4. Price broke down below the black trendline, reversing the uptrend to a down trend.  All TIs are on sell, and want to see lower prices.

TSLA daily

Using the weekly chart, we can see that there’s solid support in the $300-$280 region, going all the way back to 2014. This fits well with the target zone assessed from the daily chart. Note that the weekly MACD never confirmed the recent uptrend as it remained on a sell; typical for a b-wave as well.

TSLA weekly