BABA, CTS, CTSH, DIS, MEOH, PYPL, USAT updates 05/16

BABA: Counts best as major-5 of Primary III now underway. The monthly TIs are all setting up for a typical 5th wave: decreasing momentum. Price moved back above it’s 200d SMA late-April, after a close below it earlier that month; and thus one should have longed it since. Target: $220s.

baba monthly

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CTS: Counts best as close to wrapping up (green) minor-3 of intermediate-iii of major-5 of Primary I. Since 2009 this ticker has increased almost 9000%!!!! That’s the power of long term buy and hold IF one so desires because it has also a lot of draw backs… FYI: most gains are made at the beginning not in the end of a move: from $1 to $2 is a 100% gain, but from $2 to $3 is only a 50% gain, etc… I’d wait for minor-4 to about $28 before buying CTS for a lower risk entry.

CTS monthly

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CTSH: Has reached the primary III target zone as laid out months ago and thus it’s time to become defensive and scale out IMHO. I expect Primary IV to drop $65-55 before Primary V takes hold and takes price back to ideally $95ish. Since there are no guarantees in the market and since my analysis is wrong till proven right I would not be advisable to sit through a 25-35% haircut HOPING it will move ONLY $10 above the ATH. Rinse later repeat is IMHO a more safe and sound strategy.

CTSH monthly

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DIS: Looks like its primary IV triangle is about complete on the weekly chart. The weekly TIs are starting to move back up and a break above the upper red trenline will confirm. Target for Primary V is $125-$135.

DIS weekly

The daily chart shows price moved back above its 200d SMA today and thus it’s a buy in my book. Risk: close below 200d SMA (2-3%). Reward: 20-25% or more. Excellent ratio!

DIS daily

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MEOH: Counts best as having completed a 3-wave ABC up to Cycle-1, than a 62% retrace for Cycle-2 (typical for a 2nd wave) and now a new A-wave is underway and close to completion. Interestingly www.stockcharts.com has price already at new ATHs, whereas freestockcharts.com hasn’t. Likely this is due to dividend adjustments. Major-5 of A could be sundividing, but since all prior moves were mostly 3s I am not to certain this is currently the case. Hence, when long from  much lower, please move stops up. $65 Could now be a great place IMHO.

MEOH

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PYPL: Should have completed major-4 of Primary I. A break above $85 will confirm, but we need not wait that long to go long. The daily chart shows more clearly how a triangle is forming and a break above the upper trendline is the signal IMHO to go long, if not long already. Currently that breakout level is at $79. Note the rather well-formed c=a relationships for the (red) intermediate-waves and (green) minor-waves. CLASSIC!

pypl weekly

pypl daily

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USAT: Time to update this ticker as it has moved up higher quite nicely, but appears to be nearing it’s end. Or let me say: it’s close to it’s end (Cycle-1) than it’s start. Major-3 of Primary V is now underway and may be very close to topping. I expect major-4 to find support at the low to mid-10s before major-5 targets low $13s. Hence, there’s from current levels only ~10-15% upside potential left (assuming price will follow standard Fib-extensions), after an almost 2100% run from the LOW… Not sure if it’s worth chasing up here and becoming defensive instead of aggressive seems much more prudent!

USAT monthly 1