BABA – Alibaba Group Holding Ltd

Last Updated May 21, 2019

After careful re-analysis of the monthly chart I find that Primary-I topped in 2018 and Primary-II is now underway or completed late 2018 as well. IF price can find support in the $150+/-5 zone for a possible wave-2 of III that be ideal. BUT a break below $129 targets $110-$85 depending on the C-waves’ Fib-extension (c=a to c=1.618x a). There is in that case strong support around $100, which is also close to the 62% retrace and suffice for all of II. But for now, it is from the monthly chart unclear if wave-2 of III is underway or wave-c. So let’s zoom in on the daily chart.

The daily chart actually counts well as having completed five waves up off the December low, with likely wave-a of 2 about to complete. A bounce to broken support (~$180) followed by a final c-wave lower to ideally $155ish would be the perfect wave-2 scenario. From there wave-3 of III can then launch to $265ish. Thus watch $145 going forward: any break below it will not exclude a possible wave-2 but certainly put that option into jeopardy.