AXP, CAT, MCD updates 06/07

AXP: Been a few weeks since I last updated on this (important) DOW component, but yesterday I got a renewed buy signal on my Bull scan so time to re-assess. Still can’t discern between the ending diagonal vs impulse count, although the pattern looks more like and ED. But patterns are only patterns till they aren’t. So here it goes: a move to $110-$113 in rather straight and no overlapping fashion tells us the impulse count is valid. Of course price can always extent to much higher than the shown (typical) 1.382-1.618x fib-extension targets for this intermediate-iii. If price moves to say ~108 and falls back below the lower uptrend line of the possible ED, say 102ish than the ED is valid. For now, we can look higher as all systems are on buy.

AXP.png

Note, one could also place the major-4 low at the early-April low instead. It was than a triangle-shaped correction and that would mean the mid-April high (now labelled as “c?“) is intermediate-i and the late-May low would than be intermediate-ii (now labelled as “d?“). Just something to be aware off. All in all, all 3 counts (incl. the alternate) look for higher prices!

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CAT: Also came up on my Bull scan from yesterday. It’s a stock I’ve not been following before so that’s a cool new challenge to decipher it’s pattern. Based on Elliot Wave and technical analysis of the monthly chart it counts best as having completed major-3 and 4 of Primary III of Cycle-3. The alternate is that Primary-V is already underway, but given the MAX RSI5 and MACD readings I find that less likely.  Next target is $179 to $210, which fits with the pattern found on the daily chart (see below)

cat monthly

Moving on to the daily chart for more detail, we can see in essence a nice long consolidation pattern between mostly $142.50 and $162.50. This is typical for a 4th wave. Thus a break over $161 targets $181. That’s 12.5% upside, and from current levels thats 15.3%. I am long CAT using my mechanical system. Will sell when system tells me to; either for profit or loss.

CAT daily

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MCD: Like AXP it’s been a while since I updated on this ticker but also here I got a buy signal yesterday on my Bull scan. When I saw the monthly chart, I found nothing had changed since my last update as price bottomed nicely at the 100% Fib-extension after tagging the 161.8% fib-extension for minor-4 and –3; respectively. Ideally minor-5 is now underway to the 200% extension at ~$194. That’s 15.5% upside from current levels, and still only intermediate-iii of major-5 of Primary-III. But iv should erase most of the up coming gains, so I wouldn’t hang on to my shares, but that’s just me. I’ll sell when my system tells me to. For now, the monthly systems are back to buy. That’s good.

MCD monthly.png

Zooming in to the daily chart, we have a nice close back above the 200d SMA yesterday, followed by a lot more upside today. The pattern we have is a triangle and the break higher today targets $181. This fits with the wave count expecting $194: two lines of evidence pointing to higher prices.  The bollinger bands are expanding, all TIs are pointing up and on a buy. Thus I expect higher prices going forward based on these technical as well. Thus the weight of the evidence clearly favors more upside. I am long MCD since open today. Will sell when system tells me to sell.

MCD.png