AXP, BZUN, TSLA, Z updates 09/18

AXP: I moved the (green) minor-3 and 4 waves and have price now in minor-5 of intermediate-v of major-3. Ideal target is $89-$90. With price currently at $87ish there’s not much upside left. In addition, all this 5th wave has to do is get above minor-3 and $88+ is good enough. Hence, I wouldn’t chase it up here, but rather wait for major-4, which should target around the prior intermediate-iv are of mid- to high $70s. Major-5 should the ideally target $90-$100. That’s the next big trade 🙂

AXP

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BZUN: Rocket launched higher over contrary to my initial analyses, so I had to update my count. The monthly chart below shows the adjusted count. Since (red) intermediate-ii didn’t overlap with (black) major-1, it is customary to NOT count it as a subdivision, but with this month’s clear move higher it is. Hence, price is now in intermediate-v of major-3. The black arrows show the expected path forward for major-4 and major-5.

BZUN monthly

The alternative is that we’re dealing with intermediate-v of major-5, see daily chart below, but RSI5 levels peak at 3rd of 3rd waves and per the monthly chart and count, that was intermediate-iii of major-3, Thus I prefer that count. It also fits better with where I believe the general market currently is. Hence, we’ll keep the daily chart-based count as a “just so we are aware of the potential”. Regardless, both counts do expect a larger decline either way soon. This also fits where I believe the general market is.

BZUN daily

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TSLA: I can make the case for TSLA being either in major-5 of Primary III targeting $402 to $435 (see weekly chart) or in intermediate-b of major-4 targeting $400s as well (see daily chart) In the latter case, major-4 is turning into an irregular b-wave. The case for the irregular b-wave is because the advance off the July low is overlapping and anything but impulsive. It could be some weird expanding ending diagonal, but I prefer to go with simple: simple is best. BUT, on the other hand, major-3 hit exactly the 1.618x extension and the July low was exactly at the 100% extension. Both are classic 3rd and 4th wave targets. With price now most likely gunning for the 1.764x extension at around $402, which is an ideal 5th wave target, the case for this count is firm as well. The only problem is that major-2 took several months, whereas major-4 in this case was over in 2 weeks. Timing wise that’s very odd. Regardless, lets see if price can tag $400+. If not, and it turns down from current levels and falls below $340, then intermediate-b of major-4 it is.

TSLA weeklyTSLA daily

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Z: Topped for primary I and is now in major-a down. Question is if major-a will develop in 5 waves (red i, ii, iii, iv, v) or if it will develop into 3 waves and intermediate-a bottomed last week, with intermediate-b now underway: red vs black count. So far price hit the 1.382x extension and reversed. This is both a typical 3rd and c-wave extension. Hence, this doesn’t help us too much. Now price for a 4th wave often moves back to the 0.764x extension before the 5th wave takes hold. That would be around $43 and is also where the 0.382 retrace is (lower edge of black box; which is the typical b-wave target zone). Regardless of which count is ultimately operable, short term there should be upside, but longer term there’s more downside. A better (long) trade will be when major-a is in.

z daily