AXP, BAC, C, JPM, GS updates 08/18

Time to update some of the banks.

AXP: May have topped for major-3, but can still add a 5th wave up to the ideal 2.00x 1 extension. Hence, now is NOT time the time to fully bet on more upside, but to become defensive. Especially and also since the daily A.I. gave an ideal sell signal today.

AXP

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BAC: Counts best as having completed 5-waves up. However, bigger picture (not shown) the current side-ways price action can be viewed as a longer 4th wave consolidation of 1 higher degree, meaning that we’ll get 1 more 5th wave up, once this consolidation is over. This would fit with the bigger picture of the overall market, where I anticipated major-5.

BAC

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C: My preferred count has this bank very close to bottoming for intermediate-iv. Its 50d SMA is holding nicely as support, while price is in the ideal 23.6-38.2% retrace zone. The prior 5=1 relationship for minor-5 of intermediate-iii came to fruition to the T 🙂 A move back above the 20d SMA will be a very good sign intermediate-v is underway to ideally mid-70s. Please also note the positive divergence on the RSI5 between today’s low and last week’s low, while the decline off the ATH was clearly an abc.

C daily

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JPM: I started off with the daily chart, but decided to show the monthly chart as it leaves a bit less guessing IMHO. My preferred count has intermediate-iii of major-5 of Primary III likely in, given the negative divergence on the monthly RSI5 (albeit there are still 2 trading weeks left). The vertical line shows Money Flow was highest at the minor-3 of intermediate-iii wave; which is classic. The RSI5 peaked a little prior: minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-iii: Max momentum at 3rd of 3rd of 3rd wave, which is also classic. These two set ups support therefore my count. I expect intermediate-iv to drop to the low 80s, before intermediate-v completes all of Primary III at around $105 +/- 5

JPM monthly

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GS: I realized I’d never done a big-picture count on this bank, other than daily scribbles. So when I analyzed the monthly chart the result is the following:

GS monthly

This chart is purely price based. No SMAs, no TIs, nothing but price. It really helps to focus on the waves and so far we have a nice 5-up to C-A and then clear 3 down for C-B. I decided to label them (the cycle waves) as A, B, C’s because the price action is bigger picture overlapping. Just look at the advance off the 2009 low. Each (blue) Primary wave (A,B,C,D) counts internally well as 5 major waves, but these primary waves overlap and can thus not be a I, II, III, etc setup. Note how price has remained very well in this huge, long term uptrend channel, so it really needs to break below the lower up trend line/arrow to confirm a massive new down trend. Nevertheless, even very long term buy/hold players may not be able to suffer a draw down like that and honestly I would advice against it. I’d rather rinse, lather, repeat: buy low, sell high 🙂