Last updated July 5, 2019
Daily chart: A month later since the last update and not too much has changed as “the advance off the December low into the May high really is only three waves (even a 6 year old can see that). Normally three waves are part of a correction (counter trend rally) BUT they can also be part of an ending diagonal which moves in five (3,3,3,3,3) waves. THUS did primary IV bottom in December and Primary V is underway as an ending diagonal? If so, then wave-a of 3 is about to complete with one more (smaller -minute/grey-) 5th wave before wave-b of 3 takes hold, etc (dotted red arrows). Price will have to drop below the lower dotted black uptrend line to tell us odds have shifted in favor of the May high being indeed a larger b-wave high. I wish things were clearer than this, but for now these are the two options we have to content us with. That said, short term probably a little more upside before a move back to support (1825-1820) from where price can set up a launch to new ATHs.“
Well, price did move a little higher since the June 19 update, but barely. Still looks favorable for an a-wave ending here as the technical indicators are currently not confirming the move higher. Of course this can always change and a break over 1950 can target 2025 and even ATHs. That would mean the diagonal pattern is further along than I originally anticipated. A break below 1850 is needed to target 1750 for wave-b. In summary the price pattern from an elliott wave perspective remains clouded, and maybe that’s indeed the hallmark of a final fifth wave, which are often weak and only require to make new highs.
Monthly chart: Price stalled at the 38.2% retrace of all of (blue) Primary III late last year. It could therefore already have completed all of IV, as 4th waves typically retrace that percentage of the prior 3rd wave. Now even though in time II and IV are way off (months vs years), price is the final arbiter and has retraced enough for a IV. IF we do get a new ATH: primary V then it will be the diagonal as mentioned above (grey arrows in chart below), and achieved on big negative divergences on the monthly indicators; which will be enough to usher in Cycle-2.