AMD, BABA, TWTR updates 11/01

AMD: The recent decline was much deeper than a major-4 wave -as I had orginally anticipated (see here) and so far price found support where it had too. The 200 day Simple Moving Average. Question now is if the recent high was wave III and the recent low wave IV and wave V is now underway (blue path) or if AMD only did three waves up (A, B, C) and price just formed an A-wave low, is now in a B-wave bounce and wave-C will bring it back below $2 (red path) I prefer the former, but we’ll let the market guide us. For now, regardless, I anticipate a decent size rally to at least gap fill.

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BABA: Still counts best as having completed primary IV, and is now working on V. The retrace is deeper than usual for a 4th wave, but those type of retraces are always based on standard/text book parameters. The market is the final arbiter in the end. I can make the case for a Cycle-1 top instead of a III top, by counting the 2016 high as major-1 the 2017 high as major-3 and the 2018 as 5; but for now it is an alternative. The daily chart, however, does show price is below its 200d SMA and that in my book is always a no-no for longs. But the Technical Indicators are all improving and turning to buy, so lets see what happens tomorrow morning when BABA reports earnings. That will be very telling imho.

baba monthly

baba daily

 

TWTR: Like the other stocks it also experienced what is most likely and IMHO a deeper than normal wave-4. Looking at the daily chart, I can identify 5 waves up off the recent low, for what should be intermediate-i, now wave-ii should be underway. The standard Fib-extensions and “?” wave-labels show what I view as the preferred path forward. It will allow for price to make a new marginally higher ATH, which is all that’s required of a 5th wave. This will then complete Primary-I or Cycle-1, which ever it is in the really big picture (immaterial IMHO). I will buy a pullback to the 200d SMA with a stop below $26.

TWTR WeeklyTWTR daily