AMD, BABA, OPK, MU, SBUX updates 09/21

AMD: Spiked on fake news (used to be called rumors) yesterday (mainly AH) that TESLA would be using their chip for their self-driving car. Thanks Kramer…. However, this all provides for a great chart; as at today’s high AMD retraced exactly 61.8% of the prior decline. Typical for a b-wave. Today’s brutal reversal suggests strongly a c-wave has started, which should complete all of Primary II.

AMD

There are 4 different price levels of different wave degrees I am looking for:

  1. Primary II should ideally retrace between 50-76.4% of Primary I: $8.95-$5.03. This is the blue box
  2. Major-c should ideally extend 100 to 161.8% of major-a, measured from major-b. This is the black box
  3. Intermediate-c of major-c should also ideally extend 100-161.8% of intermediate-a, measured from intermediate-b, and here I show the more common 138.2-161.8% target zone. This is the red-box
  4. There’s clearly good support in the $7.15-6.25 zone , as price moved in that area for 3-4 months last year. This is the green box (support)

When we then overlay all boxes and assess what price level is covered by ALL boxes, we get $7.15-$6.75. Hence, that’s for now my ideal target zone for Primary II as it full fills all wave-degree “requirements”. A break below intermediate-a ($10) is now needed first to confirm my thesis.

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BABA: Should be about ready to complete minor-3 of intermediate-iii of major-3 of Primary I. The micro wave count on the daily chart looks good for that.

baba daily

The monthly chart supports the minor-3 top as the RSI5 is MAX overbought, which is behaving like 3rd of a 3rd wave: max momentum. But before we get there, the micro count suggest one more push up to $183-$185. Please note the negative divergence on the daily MACD, and OBV; typical for a 5th of a 5th. Hence, I wouldn’t want to bet too much on this possible 5th wave up, in case I overlooked 1 small wave some where… The risk/reward is simple not there any more because once minor-3 completes, minor 4 should retrace to $155ish as $160-$150 is major support. That’s a much better entry level IMHO

baba monthly

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OPK: Just a quick chart of a potential nice trade-able stock. No count or anything. Just because there’s been a lot of insider buyer. Over $6.55 and this could run easily to $7/$7.50. There’s positive divergence on the daily TIs, price back above its 50d SMA and holding the critical low (lower blue line) suggesting we should see higher prices soon.

OPK daily

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MU: Strong stock, which should have topped for intermediate-iii. Since it went passed the ideal 1.618x extension, to the 1.764x extension, Intermediate-iv will likely not drop below the 100% extension, but should ideally stall at the 1.236x extension: $34.50ish. This is also prior support (grey minute iv of green minor 5). From there price should do ideally a 5=1 relationship to about $38.50ish.

MU daily

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SBUX: Albeit the recent price action off the mid-August and mid-September lows did push price finally outside and above the red descending long term down trendline, I still few this as a bounce with lower prices to come. The advance off that first low to current levels is namely clearly overlapping and so far only 3-waves. Price is struggling with the 50d SMA and an ideal c=a extension would target $55.50ish, which coincides with the prior 4th wave level. From there, or possible current levels (which are only 1% below that target… so don’t chase it…), I expect one final drop to $50 to complete intermediate-v of major-c. With the current price action and that final drop, we should see some nice positive divergence on the daily and weekly technical indicators.

SBUX daily