Updated June 12, 2019
Lets zoom in on the price action since the 2009 low first: one big overlapping mess IMHO and therefore I expect price to eventually move below the 2009 low. Maybe not by much, but when I zoom out to the big picture it appears AIG needs a few more 4th and 4th waves to complete its ((Grand (Super)) Cycle wave that started in 2001. I simply don’t know what large degree waves we’re dealing with, but that’s fine: the lasts for decades and will out last us all. If its a major-1 up lasting for a decade and making you money or a primary-I up. Different wave-label, same profit…
Zooming out, you can see the reasons why we need those 4th and 5th waves, as it appears the impulse down off the 2004, B-wave high is not yet completed and the overlapping price action since the 2009 low confirms this. I expect GSC2 to reach close to $0. It could even mean AIG will cease to exist.
Word of advice when I looked at this chart: A lot of people will point to for example AMZN and say “If you’d bought its IPO in 1997 you’d be up something around 1200%, so buy-and-hold is the best strategy”. Well if you had done the same with AIG you would be down around 85%… Buy-and-hold is clearly NOT the best strategy. And not one single strategy is the best. There is no holy grail. Clearly you will have to be very careful in what stocks to pick because it is impossible to know beforehand how the company will do 30 years later. Both AIG and AMZN looked great in 1997. AIG probable even greater than AMZN… But here we are… Instead, you MUST have an exit strategy in place, at ALL times. Failure to have one will lead to financial ruin. Having an exit strategy in place is the best strategy.
Bottom line: AIG will likely move eventually to around $0.