ADBE, AMT, ANET, ANSS updates 10/20

Today will feature a whole list of member requested ticker analyses and many more to come this week. Stay tuned, and please keep them coming. 🙂

ADBE: First the monthly candlestick chart. It shows price is about to wrap up (green) minor-5 of (red) intermediate-v of (yellow) major-3. Bit hard to forecast how far 3 will go, but it’s getting close to topping given how parabolic it’s been over the past year+. Major-4 should then take price back to the 23.6% retrace at a minimum, which coincides with the prior support/resistance zone of around $140-$145. However, there’s now of course 0 indication price will indeed bottom there and it can drop all the way to the 38.2% retrace at $120. Hence, longs short start to become very protective of their positions. Upside will be limited vs downside risk. Con’t below.

ADBE monthly

However, it appears price needs to make one more low (white minute-iv) and one more high to complete major-3. As shown in the daily chart below. But, I wouldn’t really count on it as the mid-October drop counts possible well as minute-iv too… Bottom line; upside will be limited as downside risk significantly increases. Please note that once major-4 bottoms, major-5 will take price to new ATHs (will take months), but once it completes it will also complete the Cycle-1 wave for this stock… and after that Cylce-2 will be many years of decline…  likely back to the $50-$15 area..

ADBE daily


AMT: Like ADBE, this ticker is also very close to completing (yellow) major 3. Please note how picture perfect (Red) intermediate-iii hit the 138.2% extension (typical for a 3rd of a 3rd wave; iii of 3) then intermediate-iv down to the 100%, and intermediate-v now up to the 161.8% for a typical 3rd wave. Then major-4 should drop back down the around the 100% extension once again, before major-5 targets the 200% extension for a 5=1 relationship at around $169-$170. That should then complete Cycle-1, as there have been five (blue) primary waves off the 2009 low. Cycle 2 should then bring price back down to either $90ish or as low as $45ish (both have been prior S/R)

AMT monthly


ANET: Counts very well as close to- yep you guessed it – (yellow) major-3 after a clear 5 wave advance off the major-2 low. (Red) intermediate-i consisted of picture perfect 5 (green) minor waves up. We can also see that these minor waves followed the ideal Fib-extension pattern for an impulse rather well, and so did the intermediate-waves up to intermediate-iv as then intermediate-v decided to extent… Nothing one can predict beforehand. But it tells us that major-4 will most likely drop back to  the $150 zone… That than -like the prior stocks- leaves major-5 to complete Primary-I for this stock. A



ANSS: Also here, we can see a stock in it’s last waves up. It counts really well, from an Elliot wave perspective, as being close to completing (yellow) major-3. Major-4 should then drop back to around the upper blue uptrend line; retest of the breakout, which is also around the prior (red) intermediate-iv low: $125 +/-5. This fits well with the typical impulse pattern, where the next higher degree 4th wave (major-4) bottoms at around the prior one-degree lower 4th wave level (intermediate-iv). Then major-5 will follow to complete all of Cycle-1… Same story as all of the above will then follow.

ANSS monthly