ADBE, ALB, BA, DG, PCLN, TSLA, VRX, WYNN updates 01/25

ADBE: Another case of an extended wave. Instead of major-3 ending at the what is now labeled as (white) minute-i (after 5 waves up and a 5=1 relationship), we are now in minute-iii of minor-5 and price will still need a minute-iv and v before it’s all done.



ALB: No recent extensions here. Counts best as having completed 5 waves up off it’s September-2015 low. On the daily chart price broke below its 200d SMA… no bueno. Price also clearly broke below the long term uptrend line. Break below $110-$105 is now needed to unlock support at $85ish.

ALB weekly


BA: Also here price doesn’t want to take a break and it’s simple straight up as if this company is at the penny-stock stage. Standard Fib-extensions for normal impulses be damned, buy, buy, buy. Good if you’re long, but frustrating for me to analyse and forecast. Price is essentially going parabolic and has tripled in 2 years time. Meanwhile the airline companies ($UAL, $DAL) are taking a hit… kinda weird since these two industries are tied to the hip. Just goes to show that each chart is in it’s own vaccum and needs to be treated as such. Now it’s a bit harder to say where this iii will end as it can target any fib-extension it wants in essence.  Bottom line, BA is not done in along shot, but a larger correction (iv) will happen and should find support at around $240s.

BA monthly


DG: Another 5th wave extension chart. Price is now in minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-iii of major-5 of Primary I. Note how nicely major-4 retraced perfectly 38.2% of major-3. But now it’s off to the extension races. The wave labeling is simple to show how we can anticipate price to move, but it’s not to scale neither in price nor time. Bottom line, one can stay long DG for some time to come. The monthly chart shown is long and strong.

DG monthly


PCLN: Two trains of thought here. Either intermediate-b of major-4 is underway to the 76.40% retarce (see first chart) or all of major-4 bottomed indeed a while ago and price is now in major-5; in minor-3 of intermediate-iii to be exact. Given this is a Bull market I now have to favor the Bull count.  A break over the 76.40% retrace will nail it for the Bulls, as that’s simple too much a retrace for a b-wave and major-4 would then take a year, while major-2 was a few months. That doesn’t fit the time/price relationship either. In the case of the move higher we can then look for new ATHs.

PCLN Weekly BearPCLN Weekly Bull


TSLA: I am getting a bit concerned regarding the Bull case here as presented earlier this month (see here). Why? Because of the recent decline and price having reached the ideal b-wave target zone with a c=a relationship. Yes it can be a nested 1,2 set up, but the TIs are now pointing down and the OBV is not following along (red line): it’s making lower highs. At this stage I would have liked to see more volume coming in at higher prices. Thus, as always anyway, caution is advised if long TSLA. Depending on comfort level, stops can be placed at $325. A move back over the recent high will have the Bull count firmly back on the table, for now I am cautious about this price chart as the follow through has yet to happen.

TSLA daily


VRX: Also here two schools of thought, and the VRX Bulls have therewith some work to do. The first is that intermediate-iv of major-3 is underway and close to bottoming.  So far no signs of a reversal yet. This also shows that having prudent stops in place to protect profits is ALWAYS a must. Don’t just think you know it. STOPS are your life saver because you are wrong till proven right.  Thus the bearish alternative is that a larger abc completed (see 2nd chart, weekly candles) with the c-wave equal to 1.382x the length of the a-wave. This is a very common Fib-extension for c-waves. This is also why the big boys sell after 3 larger waves up because betting on that 4th and 5th wave may be risky business as neither may never arrive. This boils down to the: don’t just think you know it aspect of trading.  The red and green S/R zones shown in both charts really need to hold price in check to give it another shot for wave-5. In the case of that wave the 76.40% extension should now hold at $18.42 to allow for a wave-5 to the 1.764x extension (anticipating a text-book 5=1 relationship and a text-book “if wave 3 to the 1.382x extension than wave-4 will drop to the 0.764x extension” impulse pattern). Aggressive traders can go long in that price target vicinity  (+/- 50c) with a stop than set at 17.87 or preferred comfort level.

VRXvrx weekly


WYNN: In case you haven’t had enough of wave-extensions yet. Here’s another one. Just look at how this 5th wave is ramping as if there’s no tomorrow. Price is ideally now in minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-v of major-3. Thus still plenty of upside left. Those long from much lower levels can stay long with a stop at $180. Aggressive investors similarly, and those not long yet should wait for minute-iv: low risk entry. Due to the extensions its hard to predict where each wave will end and/or start. Since these are weekly candles, minute-iv should be underway after the first red week. That’s the cue.

WYNN weekly