AAPL update 09/26

At long last, the big AAPL update 😉 Looks like (grey) minute-iii of (green) minor-a or minor-c is wrapping up. Why minor-a or c? Because it depends if (red) intermediate-a will be 5-waves or 3-waves. It can even be that all of intermediate-a already completed, given how oversold the daily RSI5 got. But, the MACD shows MAX momentum over the past few days, which fits better with a 3rd of a 3rd wave reading. Regardless, price traded entirely outside the lower bollinger band over the past two days and hence today’s bounce back inside is not surprising. If price reaches the b-wave target zone, than intermediate-a bottomed. I wish I could be clearer, but this is the inherent problem of corrections: they can do what ever they want. 3 waves vs 5 waves, zigzag vs flat. Nobody knows before hand. Hence, when trading corrections (especially from the short side, be sure to take profits quickly)

AAPL daily

Besides the count shown on the daily, there’s an even more bearish count possible, which is sported on the weekly chart below. It suggests all of Cycle 1 topped 4 weeks ago and price is now in Cycle 2, targeting much lower than the ideal $141-$136 target zone for a major-4 wave as shown on the daily chart above. Price on the weekly chart does count well as having completed 5 waves up. Note the negative divergences etc on the TIs, but not the On Balance Volume (OBV); .

aapl weekly

The strength of the current rally will tell the near term outlook: a bounce (grey minute-iv ideally) that fails in the $155 area will likely set the stage for a drop below Monday’s lows. In that case, the $145-$147 area currently looks like a good target zone for an intermediate-a bottom.

Bigger picture wise: a weekly close under $140 will put more confidence on the “Cycle 2 wave count”.