AAPL, AMZN update April 24

AAPL: Short and sweet story is that it counts well as having completed 5 waves up off the February low. Now 5 waves up can also be count as ABabc, or ABabcdef, so the jury is still a bit out there, but the perfect Elliot wave channel does favor the impulse count. We expect wave 2 then to retrace 38.2% to 61.8% of all of wave 1, which is between $104.75 and $100. On Friday AAPL hit the 38.2% retrace; but can thus -and ideally- still go lower. Hence, how it reacts on Tuesday on earnings will be a first indication, and how price then reacts at these Fib-retraces will be next indication.


Note the red descending trend channel price has been in for a year now and that must be respected. IF price can move over it then we can be rather certain wave 3 is underway, targeting likely the ATH as the 1.618 extension of wave 1, from $100 goes to… $133…

Hence, what we could see is a wash out to $100 first on earnings and then a rally. In the case Friday’s low was it, then the 1.382 extension of wave 1 targets the ATH. This is also a typical 3rd wave extension (or iii of 3).

Bottom line: break above the red upper trendline targets the ATH.

In the bearish case we witnessed an extended c-wave of a larger b-wave that retraced exactly 50% of the prior a-wave. Rather common. The c-wave should then target $72ish for a c=a relationship (yellow line). A close below $100-$98 will push this count to the forefront.


AMZN: This chart has also two options, but different setup then AAPL. Either we’re dealing with a set of nested i,ii,1,2,i,ii or with an ABabc wave up to the recent high. Noet how price was unable to move back into the red trendchannel and hit the 76.4% retrace of the prior decline. Not uncommon for a b-wave.


In the nested 1,2 scenario we should see AMZN spike up on earnings, as long as $585 holds (the red i, and green 2 high and low; respectively). Price should then break above the recent high and will move swiftly to the ATH and beyond. If it does overlap then this scenario is off the table. Then we have a c-wave underway targeting $415 for a c=a relationship.