AAPL, AMZN update: 1/6/2016

AAPL: the count needs to be revised as it has breached some technical levels. We went all the way back to 1980 and recounted the whole advance made since the ATL in 1985 as shown in the first chart. Please don’t worry about the mess in the top part of the chart as we’ll zoom in on it in the next plot. Also note that the monthly chart below is on a log scale and the weekly chart below is regular scale. We choose this to be able to better count the wave. The log scale makes the first years look very pronounced, but they’re actually not. With that in mind, we can see a cycle wave 1 and 2 made in the 90s, then primary I and II made in the 2000s and price has now topped for Primary III and is now in primary IV. Please see how major 2 and 4 of III alternated between a flat and zig-zag. Perfect!

aapl 1

Zooming in on the weekly chart, going back to 2007, we see the impulsing advance well. We then see the major a and b waves of primary IV and typically we expect Primary IV to retrace around 38.2% of Primary III: $84. A major a=c, from b, targets $80, so those two numbers align well. Given how weak the market currently is, we shouldn’t be surprised if it gets there in a heart beat.

aapl 2


AMZN: We count this online retailer as in intermediate iv of major 5 of Primary I. We expect it to bottom for iv between $600-$540, that’s still well below current prices. The lower red trendline should provide support, and falls well within our target box. That’s all there is to it.