AAPL, AMD, TSLA, TWTR updates 07/31

AAPL: The daily chart is quite a mess I must admit and it is really unclear what exactly the price pattern is. Did major-4 bottom in February or April. Do we have an ending diagonal forming (which can of course always be a leading diagonal as well). With all this uncertainty in price action for a good Elliot Wave count, lets take a look at the technical indicators. 1) The MACD is not confirming the new price highs. It peaked mid-May and the recent price high is at a much lower reading. 2) The On Balance Volume indicator is as negatively diverged as it ever can be. It peaked November last year, than a lower peak in March and it has been on the decline since: money is flowing out of this stock. Not in. Why? The OBV is “simply a running total of positive and negative volume. And is therefore based on the notion “that volume precedes price.” OBV rises when volume on up days outpaces volume on down days. OBV falls when volume on down days is stronger. A rising OBV reflects positive volume pressure that can lead to higher prices. Conversely, falling OBV reflects negative volume pressure that can foreshadow lower prices.” Thus what we have here is negative volume pressure: volume on down days > volume up days… Hence, I don’t expect much from AAPL earnings today; unless we get a massive (10%) spike or so.

AAPL daily

Weirdly, the weekly chart has still a rising OBV, but that’s mostly because there’s more green weekly candles. But that’s the only positive as all other technical indicators are negatively diverging. The elliot wave count suggests AAPL price is closer to an important high (Primary V) than a low…

aapl weekly

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AMD: Counts best, from an Elliot Wave Perspective of a subdividing wave-v being underway, with wave-3 in and wave-4 now underway. Negative divergences are starting to build, but can of course always be erased, though they fit with where the EWT count has price right now. Since wave-iii was a simple move up, with very small pullbacks it’s rather common for wave-v to subdivide as always one of the three up waves subdivides.

amd daily

On the weekly chart we can see some negative divergence setting up on the RSI5, upper TI, but the MFI14 -lower TI- is very overbought, which means that after a retrace we should see a higher high as money is flowing into this stock. Max money flow is often at 3rd of 3rd waves. The bigger picture elliot wave count has price now in Primary III/C. Ultimately I am looking for low to mid-20s for this stock.

AMD WEEKLY.png

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TSLA: Has so far done nothing other than to follow my preferred few of a multi-year top being in place (see weekly chart below). So far there’s only a clean and clear 3 waves up off the April lows, with the c-wave targeting exactly into the ideal target zone (black box) and stalling at long-term resistance. Now price is back below its 200d SMA and the entire SMA-setup is more that off a bear market than bull. Keep this in mind going into earnings (my personal opinion: a car company that has its own CEO help assemble its models in tents on the parking lot to meet production targets is laughable and show cases how bad the company really is doing. Who would want to buy a car made like that…?!?).

TSLA daily

So for now, all the TSLA bulls can hope for is that the larger leading diagonal (in orange) is underway and that black /a and /b have completed with a final /c wave to come to $420-$440. A break below $270 will be a very first serious warning this will NOT happen. A break below $240 will of course confirm price is on its way to $220-$120… A break over the falling 200d SMA (now at $317) is the first step for the Bulls to reclaim a new uptrend. Until then, also here lots of uncertainty going into earnings.

TSLA weekly

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TWTR: Orginally (see here) I was looking for green minor-5 to target $48-$50, but the market had different plans. Instead we may have simple had a failed 5th (only producing a marginal higher close) early July; to complete major-3. It is IMHO the only way to explain the current price action in reaction to earnings last week. Major-4 is now underway.

TWTR daily

From a Fib-retrace perspective, wave-4 should find support 30.34-26.34 zone. Any lower and the whole advance since mid-2016 was only three waves up and that means we should see eventually prices below $15… The Bulls do have the advantage of a rising weekly MACD and OBV as well as the weekly RSI5 is now as oversold as during major-2. But for now the MACD and A.I. are on a sell, wanting to see lower prices.

TWTR Weekly