AAPL, AMD, CAT updates 10/03

AAPL: Busting to new ATHs. This means, in my book, that intermediate-v of major-5 is underway. Ideal target $240. Note the MACD will set up negative divergence and the on balance volume indicator is not making new highs; thus since the late-September low up days don’t have big volume anymore. Since wave-iv only dropped to the 123.6% and not the normal 100%, we could see a move to the 223.6% extension at around $247 for a standard v=i. But, at the 200% extension v=0.764x i and  that’s very common too.

The alternative is that the $240-247 target zone -possible as low as $238, will only be intermediate-iii of major-5, assuming the February low was major-4 and not the May low! Regardless, it would be prudent to reduce exposure or retched up stops once the target zone (238-248) is reached.

aapl-daily 1


AMD: Looks like major-4 of Primary III/C has been struck as price struck the 38.2% retrace of all of major-3 today after three down weeks. Per text-book that’s a picture perfect Fib-based retrace for a 4th wave. Hence, odds favor a major-4 low is in. A move above $31 will go a long way to confirm this thesis. If correct than major-5 should target around $35 for all of III/C and the next larger multi-month correction should then start.



CAT: Counts best as having completed either major-4 of Primary III or Primary-IV. I go for the former, as the monthly chart has then an ideal target of just over $178, which fits with the daily chart. See below.

cat monthly

So far, CAT is following a nice impulse pattern, and did an almost 38.2% retrace (in green) which tells us it’s a 4th wave. Now price already moved above the September high telling is the (green, minor?) 5th wave is underway. Resistance is just overhead and I expect price to stall there for wave-iii, fall back to low-150s before wave-v takes over and moves price to new ATHS, with the monthly chart showing the 161.8% Fib-extension for an ideal primary-III target at $178. Note neither the daily nor monthly money flow indicators are confirming this move higher. Typical of a 5th wave. The monthly chart will then exhibit negative divergences to usher in wave-IV, which should bring price back to the low $130s or even lower.

CAT daily