AAP, BIDU, BUD, CALM, GE updates 01/08

AAP: New ticker, hence will start off with the big picture overview as that’s the best way to provide perspective on where it is, and what to most likely expect in the future. Using EWT it counts well as having completed 5 (yellow) waves up from its low in 2003 to its high late-2015. It has since done an almost 61.8% retrace of that entire advance in a 3-wave fashion. All very typical for a 2nd wave (blue Primary II). Since c-waves are often 1.382x a or 1.618x a, see yellow Fib-extensions, and the current wave ended at the 1.382x extension, it can’t be excluded that we’ll see one more wave down to the 1.618x extension at around $64. This would fit also with the fact that major-c hasn’t really had any (red)  intermediate-a, b wave like (yellow) major-a. This is normally to be expected. Hence, we can’t be certain yet that AAP has bottomed just yet. A b-wave bounce and then a lower low, would also set up better positive divergence on the monthly MACD and RIS5 (not shown), which can then kick in Primary III.



BIDU: Looks like it’s starting to break higher. Next target the 123.60% extension of (blue) primary I, measured from II, to $285 to complete major-3. I then expect major-4 to drop to the blue 61.8% extension at 212, before major-5 targets the blue 1.618x extension for all of Primary III at $331.

BIDU monthly

How to trade this? Shorter term traders are long BIDU with stop at just below 225. Longer term traders are long BIDU with stop at 220.


BUD: This is a slow moving stock. My preferred POV hasn’t changed for months… Should still be in (red) intermediate-ii of (black) major-5. Question is if all of wave-ii bottomed recently at the 200w SMA (green “c?”) or of we get one more stab lower to the 61.80% extension at $106.50ish. There’s too little data to tell yet, which will happen. Bigger picture: over 124.74 from here means intermediate-iii is underway, while below $95.19 means we’ll likely see $60 and then my count has to be shifted to a Primary I top at $130 and Primary II underway. Hence, I find this for now a lot odds wave count with no edge for either side until a breakout or breakdown.

BUD weekly

How to trade this: If not long yet, then wait till a breakout above $125, as that will be a much better guarantee to be on the right side of the trade and can still net $40-$50/share in profit. If already long, set stops at $95 or at desired comfort level.

*************************************************************************************CALM: New ticker, thus also here the big picture first. It counts best as having completed (Blue) primary III IN 2015 and Primary IV recently around the 38.2% retrace and the critical $34 support level. Question is if all of IV is complete and V is underway with the recent high 1 of V (yellow “1?”) or if that was a b-wave high and we get a double bottom before the real take-off. Also here I simple can’t tell. Too little data yet.


How to trade this: If not long then if you want to wing it enter and set stop below $34. I rather wait for a breakdown or breakout first.


GE: Not too much too add to the first update on GE (see here), other than that I’ve now included the technical indicators (for momentum and money flow; both are THE critical components of a stock’s movement). What we can observe is that the monthly RSI5, MACD and MFI14 got very, very oversold like they did February 2009. Back then GE made a lower low a month later and then started to advance. I expect something similar this time around, also because the 61.8% is a more typical retrace for a 2nd wave (in this case Cycle 2). We also need to see the MACD flatten out and the money flow turn back up to suggest downside momentum is losing steam and money is flowing back into the stock.


How to trade this: patience is virtue when trading and since there’s so much long term upside potential in GE it’s recommended to wait going long. No rush. In addition, the daily and weekly charts are not yet setup to go long. Until then.