AAP, AR, BUD updates 07/04

 

AAP: Price reached the lower end of the ideal wave-II target zone, which is the 61.8% retrace of Primary I, and the 1.382x extension of major-a. Thus, all requirements for a wave-II low have therefore been met from a big picture POV.

AAP MONTHLY

Zooming on the daily chart, the advance off that low has however not been a clear-cut 5-waves up unless there was a leading diagonal (LD) first wave (within the yellow lines). The retrace since that high was a clear 3-waves. Thus, at the worst we’re dealing with a larger ABC up, targeting $148 to $175 depending on Fib-extension: c=a to c=1.618x a. For now price is in a rising trend channel and thus the longer term trend is up.

AAP daily

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AR: Also this stock reached its projected downside target from months ago and started to rally, albeit not very strongly yet.

AR monthly

Zooming in on the daily chart, we can nicely count  five waves up off the low to the mid-March high. We’ll label it as I/A, then a clear three wave decline into late-May, which we’ll label as II/B. The advance since that low leaves some holes though as I am unable to count an impulse, unless this is a set of nested 1st and 2nd waves. Yes, also I have limitations and this is one of them. For now, price is above its 200d SMA, as well as above its 20d and 50d, with now thus price >20>50>200, which is a nice bullish set up and thus the benefit of the doubt goes to the Bulls. I am looking for 22.75 at a minimum (c=a).

ar daily

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BUD: The conventional count we’ve had is tracking the current decline as major-4, but the issue I have here is that it has taken almost a year now and price has moved well below its 200d SMA, while during the whole prior advance it’s been above. Thus I’d like to present the new count, which IMHO makes more sense based on these issues.

BUD weekly

BUD completed Primary-I last year and is now working on major-b of Primary-II. Price found support at the 38.2% retrace of all of I, which is typical for an a-wave when wave-II will seek out the 61.8% retrace. Thus major-b to the black target zone (50-76.4% is typical) is now underway: $110-$120. Major-c should then target $65-$70 to complete primary II.

BUD weekly2.png