Metals, Miners and Forex Updates Archive

This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily and weekly updates for :

* Metals, Miners and Forex

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April 11, 2019: Similar to Gold, Silver is still in the midst of a wave-2 decline with further to go in time, structure, momentum, and particularly sentiment development. Ideally, a large and sustained bull market has begun at the November low, as five waves up transpired from there, busting through all the potentially-operative channels from the high in 2011, but lower prices should continue for now in wave 2.

April 10, 2019: Gold still looks like it needs another several weeks to couple of months of work, in terms of structure and sentiment, to set up a better low in wave 2. Small speculators, the so-called “dumb money,” are aggressive long still and the only other two times they have been this long in the last several years is near the wave-(1) peak and near the B-wave peak shown here.

April 9, 2019: Three up in the Dollar took shape from 2008 to 2017 to a 1.50 relationship and an overhead boundary. This push busted through the channel in three down from the 1985 high; however, five down ensued and overlapped the high in the initial rise and now three up and a head-and-shoulder top is complete, or very nearly so.

April 8, 2019: Stepping back to the Quarterly chart, Palladium momentum and price action now have aspects of prior important tops to go along with other time-frames (aspects which are already quite extensive, as discussed in the Overview and in subsequent updates). As noted in the Overview, wave structure and relationships argued for a probable top and then timing was good for a top in the days surrounding March 21, and seasonally as well, and now five down has taken shape from there, that quickly took 300 points, or over 18% out of the market in just 2 weeks

April 4, 2019 Update: Going back to the 1970’s, momentum for the Euro has only been oversold three times. The previous two times led to strong, multi-year (8-10 year) advances and this last time spawned an impulsive advance from the January 2017 low, so the current decline looks like it is setting up another low before higher prices resume toward 1.29 or so. Each of the three subsequent corrections also adhered to corrective channels and each went just past these channels and equality measures near their end.

April 3, 2019 Update: Silver has turned higher from November 2018 in a clear, five wave structure in wave 1. Wave 2 is coming into a point time-wise where it can put in a low in the April/May time-frame. Momentum has turned up post divergences and a couple of these measures have broken former downtrends

April 2, 2019 Update: On the Weekly chart, there are multiple momentum divergences as the Swiss Franc has held this support area for several years. There’s ideal wave structure in an initial wave (1) up, and now wave (2) down is complete, as an expanded flat B wave went to a 1.382 of wave A, and now a C-wave ending diagonal has yielded to five up and three down. MACD looks set to turn positive soon, post divergences

April 1, 2019 Update: The U.S. Dollar has either peaked in wave 2, or will do so pretty quickly from here. Momentum is diverging, commensurate with an important peak and a head-and-shoulder top continues with the right shoulder finishing up soon as well. Structurally, there is five down and three up, and the initial five down overlapped the wave-(A) high, which takes that off the table of being a likely wave-(1) high instead.

March 2019

February 2019