May 2019

April 30, 2019: Today the S&P500 dropped to SPX2924 and then rallied to close green. This invalidated a standard impulse pattern and the “underdog”, i.e. the ending diagonal pattern, seems most likely to be what is transpiring. EDs are rather common 5th wave scenarios.

April 29, 2019: Not much to add to the weekly digest as today the SPX complied with the ideal wave-tracker table shown in that update, and ideally nano-iii of micro-5 of minute-v of minor-3 has topped ~1p shy off its ideal target (see Table 1 below) and nano-iv is now underway to ideally SPX2938 from which nano-v can then rally to SPX2955-2965 to complete all of minor-3.

April 25, 2019: Today’s drop to SPX2913 suggest micro-3 of minute-v of minor-3 topped at SPX2937 yesterday and micro-4 was at today’s low of SPX2913 or it may become more complex (see figure 1). As said yesterday: “Only a break below SPX2908 from current levels would be a first warning that my preferred Elliott wave count is wrong and something else (lower prices) is transpiring. Price will have to drop below SPX2892 to confirm this bearish scenario.”

April 24, 2019: Not much to add other than that the indices squeezed out a marginal higher high on negative divergence on the hourly. Looks like nano-iii and nano-iv of micro-3 of minute-v of minor-5. Ideal upside target for minor-5 remains now SPX2965 assuming current wave count is correct. First resistance also remains at SPX2946 (123.6% extension).

April 23, 2019: Last Thursday I found “the Futures market made it down to 2890 last night, SPX2884 equivalent, but the cash market has (so far) not gotten there and opened higher. Question is if cash will get there or not. It often does but not always (e.g. on December 24 the ES_F dropped as low as 2317, while cash only got tor SPX2347). Kind of tail-wags-dog?” Well, that was what (unfortunately) happened, not allowing anybody to buy at lower levels.

April 18, 2019: Since the US markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday, the weekend update will be send out tomorrow and this daily update will therefore be brief. Today was another gap up open: the 16th over the past 18 trading days (Since March 26). The gaps account for a total of 102.26p, while the S&P500 has only gained 92.15p. In other words, during regular trading hours the S&P has lost more than 10p. (source: ISPYETF).

April 17, 2019: Another gap up open today that got sold off from the get-go: goose futures with the left pocket, sell the right pocket into cash aka distribution? This suggests that FOR THE S&P500 (as all other indices are still in their own and different counts) either wave-iiiiiiiii peaked yesterday and today’s high was an irregular b-wave of an (expanded) flat wave-iv (as postulate yesterday it would be) or today’s high was wave-iii . E

April 16, 2019: At long last, SPX2915 was reached today (SPX2916.06 to be exact) right at the open with a nice Fib-based standard impulse micro-5 wave off the SPX2872 low; and the S&P500 did since nothing but decline, turning green to red intraday only to close +1.5p higher. Hence, odds favor that minute-iii of minor-3 of intermediate-v is in. Today’s low could have been micro-a of minute-iv, then a micro-b followed by micro-c to ideally SPX2885-2865.

April 15, 2019: As usual 4th waves cause “confusion and delay” (Sir Topham Hatt; Thomas the Train) and if my assessment of the micro-count is correct than this fourth wave is likely complete (nano-iv of micro-5 of minute-iii of minor-3 for the S&p500). I’ve used the 3X ETFs SPXL and TQQQ to illustrate this wave count; with the SPXL showing a three wave correction from Friday’s high into today’s low and the TQQQ showing another impulse up off today’s low and wave-5 should now target SPX2915 (~$60 for the SPXL and $63 for the TQQQ).

April 11, 2019: Sideways price action is always open to interpretation: is wave-v of 3 underway or is wave-iv of 3 still transpiring, or is something else going on? A move and close above SPX2895 is needed to confirm the first option and SPX2915-2920 is then next. A move below today’s low targets SPX2865 and possible as low as SPX2855 if SPX2875 doesn’t hold on a closing basis.

April 10, 2019: With the FED leaving rates unchanged, the markets got the message “FED has your back, there’s no recession (yet), and we support the banks”. Thus the potential impulse pattern identified this weekend remains in tacked and wave-v of 3 should now be underway. But as said yesterday, I may be off by one wave-degree. Ideally wave-3 reaches SPX2965-2996, but the shown v = i relationship only targets SPX2915.

April 9, 2019: Although I would have liked to see wave-iii of 3 reach SPX2915 at a minimum, looks like it completed yesterday at SPX2895.95 and wave-iv is now underway and may have possible already completed but it can become more complex and target as low as SPX2865. As said yesterday “As long as price remains above SPX2845-2830 it can continue to move higher. A break below SPX2865 could mean an ending diagonal is forming.

April 8, 2019: Not much too add to the weekly digest as the S&P500 is on track to reach the ideal SPX2915-2945 zone for wave-iii of 3. From there I expect a retrace to SPX2915-2885 before the next rally to ideally SPX2965-2995 starts to complete wave-3. Once that latter target zone is reached, we should expect wave-4 to retrace about 75p before a final 5th targets ideally SPX3045.