September 2018

This page features Intelligent Investing’s daily updates of the US stock market, mostly focused on the S&P500, made public three to five days after being sent out to Premium Members. To become a Premium Member, please subscribe here. Subscription includes access to one of the best, detailed, up-to-date technical analyses of most US indices, commodities, and many individual stocks you’ll find. 

 

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Daily update 09.27.2018: Whipsaw gallore in this market. As said last week “Futures will do, what cash can’t do” as the S&P closed 8p higher today, but it opened 6p above yesteday’s close and closed 2p above the open, thus 75% of today’s gains were Futures driven. That aside, yesterday I was lookingfor either a simple c=a up to a possible impulse.

Daily update 09.26.2018: Over the last two days I was preferably looking for a last rally to ideally SPX2952-2957. But I also warned “a break below SPX2886 will take these options off the table, and a break and close below SPX2904 will be a serious first warning as price will then also move below the blue uptrend line. “ Today the S&P did an bearish intra-day reversal and went below SPX2904 (SPX2903.28 to be exact).

Daily update 09.25.2018: Yesterday I showed the two possible and most likely counts for the S&P500 and today didn’t do much to proof or disproof either. Price can still move a little lower to the blue uptrend line before rallying to SPX2952-2957 ideally next. As said yesterday, “a break below SPX2886 will take these options off the table, and a break and close below SPX2904 will be a serious first warning as price will then also move below the blue uptrend line. “

Daily update 09.24.2018: Over the last few days I was tracking the standard impulse pattern and noted in the weekend update “…Any move below SPX2920 and especially SPX2912 will take this impulse count off the table. It happened after the SPX2917 high was struck, so it can happen again!” Well, here we are yet again as price moved well-below the ideal target zone for a 4th wave and almost overlapped with the possible 1st wave.

Daily update 09.20.2018: Yesterday I was looking for micro-wave-a of minute-c of minor-5, to target ideally SPX2921 as long as SPX2901 held, albeit postulated ”SPX2912 could have been it, but one more impulse higher to SPX2920 would be ideal”. Well, with today’s blast off higher starting the day at SPX2920, and rallying to SPX2935 it meant SPX2912 was indeed it and also SPX2906 was it. I was anticipating a bigger drop to around SPX2895, but all we got was SPX2906…

Daily update 09.19.2018: Yesterday I was looking for micro-wave-a of minute-c of minor-5, to target ideally SPX2921 as long as SPX2901 held. From there wave-should take hold targeting ideally ~SPX2895 before wave-c rallies to ideally SPX2930-2952; depending on Fib-extension. So far so good, as we got SPX2912 today (Fig 1A). Can the S&P squeeze out another 8p higher?

Daily update 09.18.2018: Yesterday I dropped the leading diagonal count for the S&P and focused on two options: “In the case of the SPX having formed a b-wave top at SPX2906, then the lower target zone is SPX2856-2824, depending on Fib-extension of the c-wave. If SPX2906 was wave-a of minor-5 to new ATHs, then the current decline is a b-wave, and it should find support around 2884-2876.” This is what happened in the cash market with a low at SPX2886

Daily update 09.17.2018: Over the weekend we were assessing three possible counts. I can now eliminate the ending diagonal to SPX2920 option as today’s drop was too deep for a micro-4 of minute-i of minor-5/d. So what’s happening? Let’s assess the NASDAQ for a change: It looks like a clean five waves down are developing with ideally wave-iii of 5 complete.

Daily update 09.13.2018: Over the last two days we were tracking -once again- two options: a “blue pill” vs “red pill” Elliot Wave count, which translated in text to: “A move above SPX2895 is needed to confirm this path This count is also shown in Figure 2A, B on the next page” vs “A move below SPX2880 will now most likely usher in more selling to new lows (SPX2840ish).” Today the S&P gapped up at the open at SPX2897 and rallied to SPX2906, which is exactly as the Blue Pill Elliot Wave count projected “a move to ideally SPX2905s.”

Daily update 09.12.2018: Due to the estremely complicated messy price structure since the SPX2864 low was struck last Friday, and because I’ve business and family obligations after 3pm PT, I’ll keep this update brief. Nothing has changed really from yesterday’s perspective as both short-term counts are still valid:

Daily update 09.11.2018: Yesterday “my best guess [was] that due to the breakout from the downtrend channel in place since the SPX2917 high was struck, we could see a bounce to SPX2890-2905 for a c-wave.” Bingo, we got to SPX2893, but little did I know the markets wanted to open lower first to in essence start a short-squeeze. Depending on which bigger-picture count the market is in we could have

Daily update 09.10.2018: The overlapping price action continues, which makes the forecast of the markets next likely move rather complicated. My best guess is that due to the breakout from the downtrend channel in place since the SPX2917 high was struck, we could see a bounce to SPX2890-2905 for a c-wave. For now I’ve not seen price action telling me a new impulse off the SPX2864 has started.

Daily update 09.06.2018: Yesterday I started off with “If we want certainties then the market is not the place to be for us as it continuesly changes and morphs. It is up to us to adapt accordingly. In hind-sight things are easy, but nobody could foresee this whipsawing decline once SPX2917 was struck.” Today this changing and morphing of possible Elliot Wave counts continued

Daily update 09.05.2018: The short term mess continues with now ten (10!) ~10p+ swings since the SPX2917 low. Remember, all we can do is anticipate, monitor, and adjust if necessary. If we want certainties then the market is not the place to be for us as it continuesly changes and morphs. It is up to us to adapt accordingly. In hind-sight things are easy, but nobody could foresee this whipsawing decline once SPX2917 was struck.

Daily update 09.04.2018: On Friday it looked like the market had put in its low, but that assessment was unfortunately wrong. This is the inherent problem with corrections: very hard to forecast as it can have as many twists and turns as it wants. What we have now is pretty much a nine (9!) ~10p swings in less than two days since the SPX2917 high was struck: 2904-2912-2895-2906-2892-2902-2886-2900-2884