September 2017

Daily update 09/28/2017:  This market is as tuff as it gets when it comes to trying to count waves, as of late (pretty much since the SPX2428 low) and especially since Monday’s SPX2488 low. Figure 1A shows the detailed 1 minute chart and it’s been one large overlapping mess since. This is one of very few times that I have to say: I’ve no clue what the short term count is. My best interpretations are given.

Daily update 09/27/2017: With today’s pop, drop and go, I can now eliminate another count, leaving us with: (Orange) micro-3 topped at SPX2509 and micro-4 bottomed at SPX2488. Micro-5 is underway: next target is SPX2525 +/-2p. Or, (Red) Intermediate-b of major-4 is still underway, with one more (gray) minute-v wave up to SPX2511/2519 before intermediate-c takes hold to SPX2400.

Daily update 09/26/2017: After yesterday’s sell off in (many big) tech, today the obligatory bounce materialized, or was it the start of a new impulse up? Due to an overnight gap up, price rallied an additional whopping 3p to retest broken support from the lower green uptrend line and then started to slowly work its way down, almost closing at the low of the day.

Daily update 09/25/2017: In the weekend update I showed a plethora of indicators which are flashing red warning lights and not a day late the market decided to shave off 4-5% on many FAANG stocks. Most of these are now in confirmed larger corrections.

Daily update 09/21/2017: After 9 up days, the DOW closed down today; therewith sticking to its average of 8.7 up days in a row when there are >5 up days in a row. After yesterday’s >10p pullback the market didn’t do much other than have an inside day.

Daily update 09/20/2017: Today we finally got our >10p pullback: “The King is dead. Long live the King”. I say this as we’re now entering another area of uncertainty; and I will need 4 charts to cover those. Here it goes. Fig. 1A: As you know, I prefer to define waves with >10p pullbacks.

Daily update 09/19/2017: Today marked the 7th day without a >10p pullback. The last time this happened was late-May, when there was also no >10p pullback (see orange square). Thus, micro-counting wise I can’t say anything more than a week ago… All the market does is gap up at open and kind of drift higher. But, make no mistake, no market ever goes without an >10p pullback.

Daily update 09/18/2017: In the weekend update I was ideally looking for SPX2502-2508 to be tagged for all of nano-v of all of possible minor-c or micro-3. Today we got SPX2508.32 and the market reversed. So far so good. Although today’s decline of 8.4p was the largest since last Thursday’s low of SPX2491.356 (which was a 6.92p pullback) there’s not been an >10p move since the SPX2459 low was struck.

Daily update 09/14/2017: Another flat to down day today, while the S&P made a new intra-day high, which was nicely right at my “…expect[ed] a short-term top around SPX2498 +/-2” level. I continue to anticipate a drop to around SPX2485, before SPX2510 +/- 5 is reached.

Daily update 09/13/2017: With flat markets, not much to add to yesterday’s update, other than a simple update of the charts. I still expect a short-term top around SPX2498 +/-2, then a drop to around SPX2485, before SPX2510 +/- 5 is reached.

Daily update 09/12/2017: I must apologize. We did have a >10p pullback last week. Somehow this escaped my attention. My bad. Namely, on Friday the market dropped quickly to SPX2459.40 thus causing a 10.24p drop off the SPX2469.64 high (See Figure 1). This doesn’t change any of my analyses, and in fact it allows me to improve my analyses.

Daily update 09/11/2017: Today the market invalidated my preferred count by breaking out over the SPX2470 and SPX2480 level, which I had set forth in prior updates as the levels to watch for invalidation of the “minor-c down to SPX2400-2370 count”. Instead the market chose my alternate count of an ending diagonal triangle, which is now my preferred count.

Daily update 09/07/2017: Yesterday I showed the different possibilities the market has, and since there’s not been a >10p move to the opposite direction since the SPX2446.55 low and SPX 2469.64 higher were struck (today’s decline to SPX2460.29 makes it only a 9.35p move) there’s not a whole lot we can learn from today’s price action

Daily update 09/06/2017: Yesterday I was looking for a bounce into the 50-76.4% retrace zone of the prior 2480->2446 decline. Today we got SPX2470. So far so good. 😊 The count below shows my preferred count, and the market has continued to behave accordingly; topped in the ideal SPX2466-2488 target zone, dropped below it yesterday to SPX2446 and then rallied into the forecasted target zone (green box, Figure 1).

Daily update 09/05/2017: In the weekend update I presented two cases (as usual 😉): my preferred (intermediate-b) and alternate (one more wave up to complete all of major-3). In the former case I suspected “…the topping should have start on Friday (which was rather boring in the cash market with barely any gains in the markets: 6p DOW, -7p NAS, 2p S&P), with most likely a clearer sign of a top early in the week (drop below SPX2455). … If the SPX drops below SPX2455 from current levels and/or also from SPX2488 intermediate-b will be confirmed.”