October 2018

Please click on the hyperlinked blue text to access the updates, which are in PDF format.

Daily update 10.31.2018: Today the market met all three criteria outlined over the last few days to tell us intermediate-a(btw, it can also be major-a in the case of a Primary IV wave) is in: A) rallied more than a 23.6% retrace (80p), which I had upped to 100p just to be sure, as price has now moved 2736-2603=133p in 2 days. It broke out. B) rallied and closed over the (red dotted) down trend line. C) Closed on positive breadth (see page 3).

Daily update 10.25.2018: Dear Members, before I leave for this weekend’s funeral services, here are a few charts that a)show the preferred path forward for this b-wave for the S&P500, as the current very strong rally in all indices from the positive divergences on the daily technical indicators and market breadth we’ve been looking for is now confirmed (baring any unforeseen crash into the close),

Daily update 10.24.2018: First my apoligize: for what really looked like five waves up off yesterday’s low was obvioulsy not five waves up, but three (see Figure 1A). Herein you can already see the limitations of Elliot Wave as it is interpretative. That said, the bigger picture count since the SXP2817 high has the S&P in an ending diagonal minute c-wave as the NASDAQ yesterday overlapped with the October 18 low, which otherwise would be wave-i of a regular impulse down.

Daily update 10.18.2018: When the markets don’t even reach the usual 5=1 extension, but falters at a lower extension for in this case wave-5 of wave-c we know we have a weak market (Fig 1A). The decline off the SPX2817 looks impulsive and would look complete with a drop to SPX2750 for (grey) wave a/1. A bounce to SPX2790-2800 for wave b/2 should then follow before the bottom drops out.

Daily update 10.17.2018: Not much to add to yesterday’s update other than wave-3 of c had already topped yesterday, and wave-4 of c took hold directly today (Fig 1A). This fitted actually nicely with the NASDAQ (see figure 1B), where the 1.618x extension was struck for wave-3 and wave-4 bottomed today at the 100% extension, with wave 5 now ideally underway to the 200.00% extension at $7425ish, baring any unforeseeable extensions which can still reach the 61.80% retrace at 7789-7800.

Daily update 10.16.2018: Since the weekend update I was looking for “Either minor wave-4 of intermediate wave-a, or we still could see a higher b-wave bounce on a move over SPX2795.” Well, we got the b-wave bounce today. Ideal target remains SPX2817-2845 per the daily chart (green box Fig 1A) alternatively SPX2825-2852 usingt the 1-min chart (green box Fig 1B), with possible a 4th and 5th wave to wrap up this c-wave.

Daily update 10.15.2018: Very little to add to the weekend update so will keep it brief today. Either minor wave-4 of intermediate wave-a topped at SPX2776 with a double top and ~SPX2685+/-5p is next for a 5=1 relationship, or we still could see a higher b-wave bounce on a move over SPX2795.

Daily update 10.11.2018: Today the market spoke even LOUDER than yesterday: There’s now only one count left, because as I mentioned yesterday “Any close below SPX2770 will have me favor that Primary III/V has also already topped to the S&P (and DOW), just like it has for the NAS and NDX.” And I must say I prefer the Primary V count. Why?

Daily update 10.09.2018: Well the market has spoken and it didn’t speak in favor of a bigger bounce. I guess since many were looking for a bounce the market decided to go the other direction. So lets get right to it: I was looking for a drop to ideally SPX2845-2840, possible as low as SPX28155, but we are already at SPX2785.

Daily update 10.09.2018: Very little to add to yesterday’s update so will keep it very brief today. Looks like my “ideal path forward” shown yesterday with the grey arrows is tracking the market action rather well (Fig 1A). Question is if all of b of bhas completed or if it wants to drop a little lower first, before wave-c takes hold. Ideal target zone remains SPX2910-2920.

Daily update 10.08.2018: In the weekend update I was looking for an immediate bounce, but we got was lower first. I found out why: the NASDAQ had made another i, ii wave early October, which I had miscalculated and assesed as part of all of wave-2 as price made a 22c lower high on October 3 vs October 2. See figure 1A. I apoligize, but sometimes there are so many numbers to keep track off I confuse them

Daily update 10.04.2018: Over the last few days I assessed the charts that we did know, which were the RUT, NDX, NAS, and DJIA. As usual the hybrid S&P500 was the larger unknown. Yesterday I started off with the DJIA … Today we got that down day, solidifying all the negative divergences that were developing (red arrows), and minute-iii thus got confirmed.

Daily update 10.03.2018: This update will be very brief as the short-term price action continues to be extremely overlapping and in three-waves patterns, while the markets gap up at the open but get sold later (over the last 10 trading days there has only been one day with a higher open AND higher close), so let’s continue to look at what we know and how that affects our assessment of the markets.

Daily update 10.02.2018: Today let’s look at what we know and how that affects our assessment of the markets. First up the RUT and NDX. As you can see, both followed pretty much a picture perfect Fib-based impulse pattern off their early April lows: wave-iii topped exactly at the 1.618x extension of wave-i, measured from wave-ii, wave-iv then fell back to the 1.000x extension of wave-i, and wave-v then went on to target the 2.000x i extension.

Daily update 10.01.2018: Our whipsaw galore market continues unabated. As said last week “Futures will do, what cash can’t do” as the S&P once again gaped up 12p only to close 11p higher today, thus all of today’s gains were Futures driven. The NASDAQ added insult to injury by producing a bearish intra-day reversal and daily engulfing red candle.